Oregon State at Fresno State - 2022 Matchup Preview

Oregon State Beavers at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 10th 2022 (10:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -1 (59.0)
Oregon State 35 - Fresno State: 32

Beavers (10 - 3) (11 - 2 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (16 - 28)
Avg Score : 32 - 20 (26 - 26 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FRES 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -3 (SP+ ORST -11)
Projected Score: ORST: 21 - FRES: 30 (51)
FRES Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
ORST Travel: 566 miles

Bulldogs (10 - 4) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (26 - 14)
Avg Score : 31 - 19 (34 - 16 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ORST Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oregon State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Oregon State vs Boise State	-2.0	55.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Oregon State at Fresno State	+1.0	59.0	W 35 - 32	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Oregon State vs Montana State	-16.5	56.5	W 68 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Oregon State vs USC	+5.5	70.5	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Oregon State at Utah	+10.5	54.0	L 16 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/8	Oregon State at Stanford	-4.5	53.0	W 28 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/15	Oregon State vs Washington State	-3.0	51.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Oregon State vs Colorado	-23.0	47.5	W 42 - 9	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/4	Oregon State at Washington	+4.5	53.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Oregon State vs California	-11.5	47.0	W 38 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Oregon State at Arizona State	-7.5	53.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Oregon State vs Oregon	-1.0	57.0	W 38 - 34	O	Y
Sat 12/17	Oregon State vs Florida	-7.5	52.0	W 30 - 3	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule

Fresno State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Fresno State vs Cal Poly	-42.5	63.0	W 35 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/10	Fresno State vs Oregon State	-1.0	59.0	L 32 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/17	Fresno State at USC	+11.0	71.0	L 17 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1	Fresno State at UConn	-23.5	51.0	L 14 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/8	Fresno State at Boise State	+9.0	45.0	L 20 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/15	Fresno State vs San José State	+7.0	47.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Fresno State at New Mexico	-9.5	40.0	W 41 - 9	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Fresno State vs San Diego State	-10.0	43.5	W 32 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/5	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	-27.0	62.0	W 55 - 13	O	Y
Fri 11/11	Fresno State at UNLV	-9.0	61.5	W 37 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/19	Fresno State at Nevada	-22.5	54.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Fri 11/25	Fresno State vs Wyoming	-15.0	50.5	W 30 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/3	Fresno State at Boise State	+3.0	54.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 12/17	Fresno State vs Washington State	-5.5	54.0	W 29 - 6	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST	.25	48%	32.2	51%	3.42	196	46%	200	4.47	.1	39%	20	44%	36%	3.09	54.7	1.4	1.6
FRES	.24	47%	30.6	47%	3.07	133	48%	270	4.22	.15	39%	19.4	42%	37%	3.29	41.1	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)		47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)		50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Offense	13	32.2	26.2	48.5%	4.47	1.4	22	396	196	200	4.9	59%	40%	51%	46%	13%	.25
FRES Defense	14	19.4	15.5	39%	3.29	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	42%	37%	18%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Defense	13	20	26.4	38.8%	3.09	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	44%	36%	18%	.1
FRES Offense	14	30.6	33.5	47.1%	4.22	1	22	403	133	270	4	42%	57%	47%	48%	11%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oregon State	13	31:57	22.2	44%	70%	6	54.7	1.4	1.6	4.9	1.6	4	33.7
Fresno State	14	31:16	21.9	46%	50%	4.5	41.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.6	3	30.7

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Offense	13	59%	51%	40.2	196.5	4.9	36	.23	3.42	78%	7%	0.94
FRES Defense	14	51%	42%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.15	69%	9%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Defense	13	42%	44%	-	-	-	-	.19	3	78%	10%	1.02
FRES Offense	14	42%	47%	33.2	133	4	28	.17	3.07	77%	8%	0.86

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Offense	13	40%	46%	15.5	24.8	199.5	8	12.9	16	13	.36	1.6	27%	33%	.36	5%	1.9
FRES Defense	14	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.16	1.6	35%	32%	.32	9%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Defense	13	57%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.06	1.4	35%	28%	.27	8%	2
FRES Offense	14	57%	48%	23.8	33.7	269.6	8	11.3	22	9	.35	1.3	28%	32%	.36	3%	1.8

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: NR
Oregon State's Offense Rating: NR
Oregon State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Oregon State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Oregon State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.3 #22
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #41
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #24

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: Fresno State: 4.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 14.3 Fresno State: 3.3

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 4.15 NR
Fresno State's Offense Rating: NR
Fresno State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Fresno State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Fresno State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.3 #59
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #64
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #47

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.2
Defense: 20 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.4

Oregon State's 2022 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 2 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 30
Oregon State 21

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 31
Oregon State 18

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 28
Oregon State 23

Total Points: 51

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 30.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.5
Defense: 19.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.5

Fresno State's 2022 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	Oregon State	27	Fresno State	36	Oregon State -1.0	Fresno State	45.5	Over
2022	09/10	Fresno State	32	Oregon State	35	Fresno State -1	Oregon State	59.0	Over
2003	09/05	Fresno State	16	Oregon State	14
2002	09/21	Oregon State	59	Fresno State	19
2001	09/02	Fresno State	44	Oregon State	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	3	1	2 Overs
Oregon State	2	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 3	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0

(#) ORST at (#) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ORST	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#22	#59
Perf GradeGrade	#10	#44
OffenseOff	#8	#22
DefenseDef	#32	#85
Spec TeamsST	#33	#28
TalentTal	#54	#79
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Oregon State Injury Report

Fresno State Injury Report

Oregon State on Offense


CategoryCat	ORST Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#8	#85
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#41	#47
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Oregon State Run Game


CategoryCat	ORST Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#18	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#70

Oregon State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ORST Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#13
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#54	#120
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	ORST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#22	#32
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#64	#24
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	#25	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#35

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	#15	#20
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#92	#115
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

ORST 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 85° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 2
Fresno State -1.0 (59.0)
Oregon State won at Fresno State this year (35-32)

Previous Matchups
Oregon State beat Fresno State in 2022 (35-32)

ORST's OC Brian Lindgren (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Trent Bray (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

FRES's OC Kirby Moore (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD