Texas State at Troy - 2022 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 15th 2022 (3:30 PM EDT)
Troy -16.5 (47.0)
Troy 17 - Texas State: 14 (Sun Belt)

Bobcats (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jake Spavital (9 - 27)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TROY 2nd straight Home Game
TROY is playing their 7th straight game
TXST is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -12.5 (SP+ TROY -20)
Projected Score: TXST: 29 - TROY: 28 (57)
TROY Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
TXST Travel: 722 miles

Trojans (12 - 2) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 23 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
TROY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Texas State at Nevada	-2.0	51.5	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/10	Texas State vs Florida International	-13.5	62.5	W 41 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Texas State at Baylor	+30.0	53.0	L 7 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/24	Texas State vs Houston Christian	-26.5	65.0	W 34 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Texas State at James Madison	+22.0	51.5	L 13 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/8	Texas State vs App State	+19.5	54.5	W 36 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Texas State at Troy	+16.5	47.0	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Texas State vs Southern Miss	+2.5	43.0	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Texas State at UL Monroe	+2.5	52.5	L 30 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Texas State at South Alabama	+16.0	46.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/19	Texas State vs Arkansas State	-6.0	50.0	W 16 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/26	Texas State vs Louisiana	+5.0	44.0	L 13 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Troy's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Troy at Ole Miss	+21.5	56.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Troy vs Alabama A&M	-37.5	52.0	W 38 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/17	Troy at App State	+14.0	52.0	L 28 - 32	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Troy vs Marshall	+3.0	51.5	W 16 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Troy at Western Kentucky	+5.0	55.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Troy vs Southern Miss	-7.0	44.0	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/15	Troy vs Texas State	-16.5	47.0	W 17 - 14	U	N
Thu 10/20	Troy at South Alabama	+3.0	47.0	W 10 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Troy at Louisiana	-3.5	42.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Troy vs Army	-8.5	45.5	W 10 - 9	U	N
Sat 11/19	Troy vs UL Monroe	-15.0	48.5	W 34 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Troy at Arkansas State	-13.5	43.5	W 48 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/3	Troy vs Coastal Carolina	-7.0	49.0	W 45 - 26	O	Y
Fri 12/16	Troy vs UTSA	-2.0	55.5	W 18 - 12	U	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	.18	42%	36.5	46%	3.43	149	39%	193	4.12	.31	48%	29	47%	49%	4.18	58.8	1.7	1.1
TROY	.12	39%	23.5	37%	2.65	100	41%	239	2.86	.13	38%	23.9	38%	39%	3.89	44.5	1.8	2.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	12	36.5	34.2	41.8%	4.12	1.7	20	342	149	193	4	48%	50%	46%	39%	21%	.18
TROY Defense	12	23.9	22.8	38.4%	3.89	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	38%	39%	18%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	12	29	32.8	47.9%	4.18	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	47%	49%	15%	.31
TROY Offense	12	23.5	25.3	39.1%	2.86	1.8	18	338	100	239	3.3	41%	59%	37%	41%	18%	.12

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	12	28:18	20.1	33%	67%	5.8	58.8	1.7	1.1	4.7	1.5	1	26.8
Troy	12	27:37	18.3	40%	63%	5	44.5	1.8	2.3	7.5	3.2	3	30.2

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	12	48%	46%	36.9	149.2	4	17	.16	3.43	84%	14%	0.9
TROY Defense	12	55%	38%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.84	91%	13%	0.9

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	12	53%	47%	-	-	-	-	.24	3.51	81%	10%	0.98
TROY Offense	12	41%	37%	30.5	99.8	3.3	18		2.65	61%	12%	1.02

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	12	50%	39%	18.6	32.3	193.1	6	10.4	15	12	.22	1.5	36%	28%	.36	7%	2.2
TROY Defense	12	45%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.24	1.7	34%	25%	.25	5%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	12	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	.41	1.4	30%	40%	.54	5%	1.9
TROY Offense	12	59%	41%	22.1	34.9	238.7	6.8	10.8	15	10	.22	1.5	32%	31%	.35	6%	2.2

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Texas State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.5 #102
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #110
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #79

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: Troy: 6.55

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -11.5 Troy: 8.1

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 6.55 NR
Troy's Offense Rating: NR
Troy's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Troy's 2022 Expected Record: -
Troy's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #44
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #108
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.2 #8

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2022 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 29
Troy 28

Projected Total Points: 57

Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.8

Troy's 2022 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Texas State	41	Troy	48	Texas State -7.5	Troy	53.5	Over
2024	10/03	Troy	17	Texas State	38	Texas State -14.5	Texas State	56.0	Under
2023	10/28	Texas State	13	Troy	31	Troy -6.5	Troy	53.0	Under
2022	10/15	Troy	17	Texas State	14	Troy -16.5	Texas State	47.0	Under
2021	10/16	Texas State	28	Troy	31	Troy -7.5	Texas State	49.0	Over
2020	10/10	Troy	37	Texas State	17	Troy -7.0	Troy	59.0	Under
2019	11/16	Texas State	27	Troy	63	Troy -7	Troy	65.0	Over
2018	11/17	Troy	12	Texas State	7	Troy -23	Texas State	47.5	Under
2017	11/24	Troy	62	Texas State	9	Troy -23.5	Troy	53.5	Over
2016	11/26	Texas State	7	Troy	40	Troy -26.5	Troy	57.5	Under
2013	11/29	Troy	42	Texas State	28	Troy -4.5	Troy	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Troy	10	7	4 Overs
Texas State	1	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 6	4 - 7	3 - 3	1 - 4
Road Teams	6 - 5	7 - 4	4 - 1	3 - 3

(#) TXST at (#) TROY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	TROY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#102	#44
Perf GradeGrade	#42	#14
OffenseOff	#98	#29
DefenseDef	#3	#17
Spec TeamsST	#99	#68
TalentTal	#90	#91
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Texas State Injury Report

Troy Injury Report

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	TROY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#98	#17
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#110	#8
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#113	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#75	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#112

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#18
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#22	#10
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Troy on Offense


CategoryCat	TROY Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#29	#3
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#108	#79
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Troy Run Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#38	#1
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#61	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#77

Troy Pass Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#11	#27
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#109	#3
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TROY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'22 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Troy -16.5 (47.0)
Troy won vs Texas State this year (17-14)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Texas State last year (48-41)
Texas State beat Troy in 2024 (38-17)
Troy beat Texas State in 2023 (31-13)

TXST's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Zac Spavital (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TROY's OC Joe Craddock (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Shiel Wood (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD