Texas State at Nevada - 2022 Matchup Preview
Texas State logo Texas State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackNevada logo
Saturday, September 3rd 2022 (5:30 PM EDT)
Texas State -2 (51.5)
Nevada 38 - Texas State: 14

 
Bobcats (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jake Spavital (9 - 27)
Avg Score : 21 - 26 (17 - 34 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Temp: 98.2° (11% Hum)
Wind: 19.7 MPH
Our Line: -3  (SP+ TXST -11)
Projected Score: TXST: 26 - NEV: 28 (54)
TXST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
TXST Travel: 1406 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Wolf Pack (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Ken Wilson (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (20 - 32 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Texas State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 Texas State at Nevada-2.051.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 9/10 Texas State vs Florida International-13.562.5W 41 - 12UY
Sat 9/17 Texas State at Baylor+30.053.0L 7 - 42UN
Sat 9/24 Texas State vs Houston Christian-26.565.0W 34 - 0UY
Sat 10/1 Texas State at James Madison+22.051.5L 13 - 40ON
Sat 10/8 Texas State vs App State+19.554.5W 36 - 24OY
Sat 10/15 Texas State at Troy+16.547.0L 14 - 17UY
Sat 10/22 Texas State vs Southern Miss+2.543.0L 14 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5 Texas State at UL Monroe+2.552.5L 30 - 31OY
Sat 11/12 Texas State at South Alabama+16.046.0L 21 - 38ON
Sat 11/19 Texas State vs Arkansas State-6.050.0W 16 - 13UN
Sat 11/26 Texas State vs Louisiana+5.044.0L 13 - 41ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Nevada's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27 Nevada at New Mexico State-7.048.0W 23 - 12UY
Sat 9/3 Nevada vs Texas State+2.051.5W 38 - 14OY
Sat 9/10 Nevada vs Incarnate Word-4.061.5L 41 - 55ON
Sat 9/17 Nevada at Iowa+24.039.0L 0 - 27UN
Fri 9/23 Nevada at Air Force+24.047.0L 20 - 48ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/7 Nevada vs Colorado State-3.544.0L 14 - 17UN
Sat 10/15 Nevada at Hawai'i-6.551.5L 16 - 31UN
Sat 10/22 Nevada vs San Diego State+7.536.0L 7 - 23UN
Sat 10/29 Nevada at San José State+24.544.5L 28 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12 Nevada vs Boise State+21.047.0L 3 - 41UN
Sat 11/19 Nevada vs Fresno State+22.554.0L 14 - 41ON
Sat 11/26 Nevada at UNLV+12.549.0L 22 - 27UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST.1138%21.147%3.1410333%2213.69.1341%26.340%42%3.6344.31.42.1
NEV.0435%18.837%2.8911933%1862.85.2643%30.944%42%3.9755.11.41.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)49% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)38% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)47% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)49% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense1221.116.538.3%3.691.4183241032213.243%56%47%33%21%.11
NEV Defense1230.931.842.9%3.971.7 - - - - - 53%47%44%42%19%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense1226.334.340.7%3.632.1 - - - - - 44%55%40%42%20%.13
NEV Offense1218.819.534.8%2.851.4173051191863.347%52%37%33%23%.04

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State1230:2817.737%33%4.844.31.42.16.42.2226.9
Nevada1228:2916.935%50%655.11.41.76.32.2127.2
Run Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense1243%47%31.91033.29.133.1475%13%0.84
NEV Defense1253%44% - - - - .193.4690%13%0.95
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense1244%40% - - - - .123.1763%12%0.95
NEV Offense1247%37%35.6118.93.319.012.8973%15%1.08

Pass Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense1256%33%22.836.8220.869.71910.141.633%27%.388%2.2
NEV Defense1247%42% - - - - - - 11.351.833%30%.446%2.4
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense1255%42% - - - - - - 11.191.433%30%.257%1.8
NEV Offense1252%33%18.133.2185.65.610.378.11.638%27%.198%2.2

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Texas State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.5  #102
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #110
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5  #79

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State:    Nevada: -8.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -11.5   Nevada: -22.4




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -8.7 NR
Nevada's Offense Rating: NR
Nevada's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Nevada's 2022 Expected Record: -
Nevada's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.4  #127
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.9  #121
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8  #114

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 21.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.5
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.3

Texas State's 2022 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Nevada 28
Texas State 26

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Nevada 31
Texas State 26

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
Texas State 25
Nevada 25

Total Points: 50
Nevada Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.5
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.8

Nevada's 2022 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/23Texas State35Nevada24Texas State -17Nevada60.0Under
202209/03Nevada38Texas State14Texas State -2Nevada51.5Over
201209/29Texas State21Nevada34
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada221 Overs
Texas State101 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams1 - 21 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#) TXST at (#) NEV
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTXSTNEV
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #102 #127
Perf GradeGrade #42 #130
OffenseOff #98 #127
DefenseDef #3 #110
Spec TeamsST #99 #84
TalentTal #90 #106
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Texas State on Offense
CategoryCat
TXST OffNEV Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #98 #110
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #110 #114
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Texas State Run Game
CategoryCat
TXST OffNEV Def
Run GameRun #113 #119
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #75 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #105
Texas State Pass Game
CategoryCat
TXST OffNEV Def
Pass GamePass #105 #84
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #22 #118
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Nevada on Offense
CategoryCatNEV OffTXST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #127 #3
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #121 #79
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Nevada Run Game
CategoryCat
NEV OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #133 #1
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #105 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #77
Nevada Pass Game
CategoryCatNEV OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #106 #27
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #106 #3
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Poor G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 98° - Wind: 20 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Texas State 2.0 (51.5)
Nevada won vs Texas State this year (38-14)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Nevada in 2023 (35-24)
Nevada beat Texas State in 2022 (38-14)

  
TXST's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Zac Spavital (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

NEV's OC Derek Sage (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kwame Agyeman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD