Texas State at South Alabama - 2022 Matchup Preview

Texas State Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars

Saturday, November 12th 2022 (5:00 PM EST)
South Alabama -16 (46.0)
South Alabama 38 - Texas State: 21 (Sun Belt)

Bobcats (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jake Spavital (9 - 27)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST 2nd straight Road Game
USA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -13.5 (SP+ USA -22)
Projected Score: TXST: 33 - USA: 29 (62)
USA Win prob: 88% | Cover: 54%
TXST Travel: 889 miles

Jaguars (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kane Wommack (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (28 - 29 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
USA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Texas State at Nevada	-2.0	51.5	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/10	Texas State vs Florida International	-13.5	62.5	W 41 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Texas State at Baylor	+30.0	53.0	L 7 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/24	Texas State vs Houston Christian	-26.5	65.0	W 34 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Texas State at James Madison	+22.0	51.5	L 13 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/8	Texas State vs App State	+19.5	54.5	W 36 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Texas State at Troy	+16.5	47.0	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Texas State vs Southern Miss	+2.5	43.0	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Texas State at UL Monroe	+2.5	52.5	L 30 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Texas State at South Alabama	+16.0	46.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/19	Texas State vs Arkansas State	-6.0	50.0	W 16 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/26	Texas State vs Louisiana	+5.0	44.0	L 13 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

South Alabama's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	South Alabama vs Nicholls	-13.5	53.0	W 48 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/10	South Alabama at Central Michigan	+6.0	57.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/17	South Alabama at UCLA	+15.5	59.5	L 31 - 32	O	Y
Sat 9/24	South Alabama vs Louisiana Tech	-13.0	59.0	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/1	South Alabama at Louisiana	-8.5	47.0	W 20 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	South Alabama vs UL Monroe	-17.0	51.0	W 41 - 34	O	N
Thu 10/20	South Alabama vs Troy	-3.0	47.0	L 6 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/29	South Alabama at Arkansas State	-9.0	52.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/5	South Alabama at Georgia Southern	-3.5	60.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/12	South Alabama vs Texas State	-16.0	46.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/19	South Alabama at Southern Miss	-7.5	45.0	W 27 - 20	O	N
Sat 11/26	South Alabama vs Old Dominion	-16.5	47.0	W 27 - 20	U	N
Wed 12/21	South Alabama vs Western Kentucky	-4.0	58.0	L 23 - 44	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	.18	42%	36.5	46%	3.43	149	39%	193	4.12	.31	48%	29	47%	49%	4.18	58.8	1.7	1.1
USA	.17	42%	26.5	39%	2.77	111	44%	256	3.36	.15	39%	30.4	37%	41%	3.02	43.8	1.7	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	12	36.5	34.2	41.8%	4.12	1.7	20	342	149	193	4	48%	50%	46%	39%	21%	.18
USA Defense	12	30.4	28.8	38.9%	3.02	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	37%	41%	20%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	12	29	32.8	47.9%	4.18	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	47%	49%	15%	.31
USA Offense	12	26.5	27.8	41.6%	3.36	1.7	19	367	111	256	3.1	46%	54%	39%	44%	21%	.17

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	12	28:18	20.1	33%	67%	5.8	58.8	1.7	1.1	4.7	1.5	1	26.8
South Alabama	12	32:18	19	31%	61%	4.8	43.8	1.7	2.2	5.7	2.7	1	28.5

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	12	48%	46%	36.9	149.2	4	17	.16	3.43	84%	14%	0.9
USA Defense	12	49%	37%	-	-	-	-	.03	2.55	63%	13%	1.01

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	12	53%	47%	-	-	-	-	.24	3.51	81%	10%	0.98
USA Offense	12	46%	39%	36.6	111.4	3.1	15	.07	2.77	68%	16%	0.91

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	12	50%	39%	18.6	32.3	193.1	6	10.4	15	12	.22	1.5	36%	28%	.36	7%	2.2
USA Defense	12	50%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.29	1.7	32%	30%	.3	7%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	12	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	.41	1.4	30%	40%	.54	5%	1.9
USA Offense	12	54%	44%	22.8	33.9	256	7.6	11.3	22	11	.27	1.5	33%	30%	.39	6%	2.1

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Texas State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.5 #102
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #110
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #79

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: South Alabama: 7.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -11.5 South Alabama: 10.8

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: 7.9 NR
South Alabama's Offense Rating: NR
South Alabama's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
South Alabama's 2022 Expected Record: -
South Alabama's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #33
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #66
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #22

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2022 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 33
South Alabama 29

Projected Total Points: 62

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.8

South Alabama's 2022 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Texas State	49	South Alabama	26	Texas State -9.5	Texas State	62.5	Over
2024	11/29	South Alabama	38	Texas State	45	Texas State -2.5	Texas State	60.5	Over
2023	11/25	Texas State	52	South Alabama	44	South Alabama -6.5	Texas State	57.0	Over
2022	11/12	South Alabama	38	Texas State	21	South Alabama -16	South Alabama	46.0	Over
2021	10/09	Texas State	33	South Alabama	31	South Alabama -4	Texas State	52.5	Over
2020	10/17	South Alabama	30	Texas State	20	South Alabama -4.5	South Alabama	57.5	Under
2019	11/09	Texas State	30	South Alabama	28	Texas State -7	South Alabama	41.0	Over
2018	09/15	South Alabama	41	Texas State	31	South Alabama -10	Push	49.0	Over
2015	10/24	Texas State	36	South Alabama	18	Texas State -5	Texas State	63.0	Under
2014	11/15	South Alabama	24	Texas State	20	South Alabama -4	Push	0
2013	10/26	Texas State	33	South Alabama	31	South Alabama -1	Texas State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
South Alabama	4	3	7 Overs
Texas State	7	6	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 1	7 - 2	4 - 1	3 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 10	2 - 7	1 - 3	1 - 4

(#) TXST at (#) USA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	USA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#102	#33
Perf GradeGrade	#42	#51
OffenseOff	#98	#64
DefenseDef	#3	#49
Spec TeamsST	#99	#34
TalentTal	#90	#89
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Texas State Injury Report

South Alabama Injury Report

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	USA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#98	#49
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#110	#22
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	#113	#59
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#75	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#36

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#47
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#22	#27
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

South Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	USA Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#64	#3
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#66	#79
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#62	#1
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#77

South Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#27
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#85	#3
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
USA 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Average P4

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hancock Whitney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
South Alabama -16.0 (46.0)
South Alabama won vs Texas State this year (38-21)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat South Alabama last year (49-26)
Texas State beat South Alabama in 2024 (45-38)
Texas State beat South Alabama in 2023 (52-44)

TXST's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Zac Spavital (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

USA's OC Major Applewhite (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Corey Batoon (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD