Texas State at UL Monroe - 2022 Matchup Preview

Texas State Bobcats at UL Monroe Warhawks

Saturday, November 5th 2022 (5:00 PM EDT)
Louisiana Monroe -2.5 (52.5)
UL Monroe 31 - Texas State: 30 (Sun Belt)

Bobcats (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jake Spavital (9 - 27)
Avg Score : 21 - 26 (17 - 34 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST coming off BYE
ULM coming off BYE
Our Line: -0.5 (SP+ TXST -4)
Projected Score: TXST: 24 - ULM: 26 (50)
ULM Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
TXST Travel: 391 miles

Warhawks (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Terry Bowden (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 22 - 34 (24 - 20 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
ULM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Texas State at Nevada	-2.0	51.5	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/10	Texas State vs Florida International	-13.5	62.5	W 41 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Texas State at Baylor	+30.0	53.0	L 7 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/24	Texas State vs Houston Christian	-26.5	65.0	W 34 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Texas State at James Madison	+22.0	51.5	L 13 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/8	Texas State vs App State	+19.5	54.5	W 36 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Texas State at Troy	+16.5	47.0	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Texas State vs Southern Miss	+2.5	43.0	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Texas State at UL Monroe	+2.5	52.5	L 30 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Texas State at South Alabama	+16.0	46.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/19	Texas State vs Arkansas State	-6.0	50.0	W 16 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/26	Texas State vs Louisiana	+5.0	44.0	L 13 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

UL Monroe's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	UL Monroe at Texas	+37.0	64.5	L 10 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/10	UL Monroe vs Nicholls	-4.5	58.5	W 35 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/17	UL Monroe at Alabama	+49.5	68.5	L 7 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/24	UL Monroe vs Louisiana	+9.5	51.0	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/1	UL Monroe at Arkansas State	+7.5	58.5	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/8	UL Monroe vs Coastal Carolina	+12.5	58.0	L 21 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/15	UL Monroe at South Alabama	+17.0	51.0	L 34 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/22	UL Monroe at Army	+6.5	55.5	L 24 - 48	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	UL Monroe vs Texas State	-2.5	52.5	W 31 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/12	UL Monroe at Georgia State	+13.5	59.5	W 31 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/19	UL Monroe at Troy	+15.0	48.5	L 16 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/26	UL Monroe vs Southern Miss	+3.0	49.5	L 10 - 20	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	.11	38%	21.1	47%	3.14	103	33%	221	3.69	.13	41%	26.3	40%	42%	3.63	44.3	1.4	2.1
ULM	.14	39%	22.3	41%	3.07	121	38%	205	4.13	.24	45%	34.4	45%	46%	4.06	44.8	1.3	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	#25 (.25)	48% (17)		49% (14)	3.41 (11)	194	48% (10)	245	3.89 (72)	#50 (.14)	39% (31)		38% (21)	39% (54)	3.47 (33)	56.5	1.6	1.2
ULM	#94 (.15)	37% (121)		40% (102)	2.93 (87)	173	33% (128)	135	3.33 (117)	#89 (.2)	47% (120)		53% (134)	39% (53)	4.12 (99)	43.3	1.3	1.1

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	12	21.1	16.5	38.3%	3.69	1.4	18	324	103	221	3.2	43%	56%	47%	33%	21%	.11
ULM Defense	12	34.4	20.4	45.1%	4.06	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	45%	46%	14%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	12	26.3	34.3	40.7%	3.63	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	42%	20%	.13
ULM Offense	12	22.3	23.6	39.1%	4.13	1.3	18	326	121	205	3.5	48%	52%	41%	38%	18%	.14

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	12	30:28	17.7	37%	33%	4.8	44.3	1.4	2.1	6.4	2.2	2	26.9
UL Monroe	12	29:28	17.8	40%	36%	4.9	44.8	1.3	0.8	5.8	1.7	1	27.6

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	12	43%	47%	31.9	103	3.2	9	.13	3.14	75%	13%	0.84
ULM Defense	12	54%	45%	-	-	-	-	.19	3.16	66%	10%	1.08

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.17	63%	12%	0.95
ULM Offense	12	48%	41%	34.8	120.6	3.5	16	.12	3.07	68%	12%	0.99

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	12	56%	33%	22.8	36.8	220.8	6	9.7	19	10	.14	1.6	33%	27%	.38	8%	2.2
ULM Defense	12	45%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.33	1.6	33%	34%	.37	4%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	12	55%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.19	1.4	33%	30%	.25	7%	1.8
ULM Offense	12	52%	38%	18.4	27.6	205.3	7.4	11.2	16	7	.21	1.7	36%	27%	.19	5%	2

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Texas State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.5 #102
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #110
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #79

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: UL Monroe: -5.35

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -11.5 UL Monroe: -15.7

UL Monroe's Power Ratings
UL Monroe's Power Rating: -5.35 NR
UL Monroe's Offense Rating: NR
UL Monroe's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
UL Monroe's 2022 Expected Record: -
UL Monroe's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.7 #118
UL Monroe's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #91
UL Monroe's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.0 #122

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 21.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.5
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.3

Texas State's 2022 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
UL Monroe 26
Texas State 24

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
UL Monroe 25
Texas State 25

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
UL Monroe 27
Texas State 23

Total Points: 50

UL Monroe Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.6
Defense: 34.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.4

UL Monroe's 2022 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Texas State	31	UL Monroe	14	Texas State -20.5	UL Monroe	59.5	Under
2024	11/09	UL Monroe	17	Texas State	38	Texas State -9.5	Texas State	50.0	Over
2023	10/14	Texas State	21	UL Monroe	20	Texas State -18.5	UL Monroe	64.5	Under
2022	11/05	UL Monroe	31	Texas State	30	Louisiana Monroe -2.5	Texas State	52.5	Over
2021	11/06	Texas State	27	UL Monroe	19	Texas State -3	Texas State	57.5	Under
2020	09/19	UL Monroe	17	Texas State	38	Texas State -3	Texas State	58.0	Under
2019	10/10	Texas State	14	UL Monroe	24	Louisiana Monroe -3.5	UL Monroe	60.5	Under
2018	10/20	UL Monroe	20	Texas State	14	Louisiana Monroe -10.5	Texas State	60.0	Under
2017	10/07	Texas State	27	UL Monroe	45	Louisiana Monroe -6	UL Monroe	55.0	Over
2016	10/15	UL Monroe	40	Texas State	34	Louisiana Monroe -4.5	UL Monroe	66.5	Over
2015	11/19	Texas State	16	UL Monroe	3	Texas State -5	Texas State	58.5	Under
2014	10/25	UL Monroe	18	Texas State	22	Louisiana Monroe -2	Texas State	0
2013	10/12	Texas State	14	UL Monroe	21	Texas State -6	UL Monroe	0
2000	09/29	UL Monroe	7	Texas State	27

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UL Monroe	6	6	4 Overs
Texas State	8	7	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 7	3 - 10	3 - 6	0 - 4
Road Teams	7 - 7	10 - 3	4 - 0	6 - 3

(#) TXST at (#) ULM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	ULM
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#102	#118
Perf GradeGrade	#42	#129
OffenseOff	#98	#120
DefenseDef	#3	#127
Spec TeamsST	#99	#130
TalentTal	#90	#120
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Texas State Injury Report

UL Monroe Injury Report

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ULM Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#98	#127
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#110	#122
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ULM Def
Run GameRun	#113	#117
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#75	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#134

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ULM Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#123
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#22	#111
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

UL Monroe on Offense


CategoryCat	ULM Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#120	#3
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#91	#79
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UL Monroe Run Game


CategoryCat	ULM Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#119	#1
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#133	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#77

UL Monroe Pass Game


CategoryCat	ULM Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#66	#27
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#125	#3
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ULM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Malone Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 66° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 10
UL Monroe -2.5 (52.5)
UL Monroe won vs Texas State this year (31-30)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat UL Monroe last year (38-17)
Texas State beat UL Monroe in 2023 (21-20)
UL Monroe beat Texas State in 2022 (31-30)

TXST's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Zac Spavital (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ULM's OC Matt Kubik (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View UL Monroe's Full Roster

ULM's DC Vic Koenning (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD