Northern Illinois at Buffalo - 2021 Matchup Preview

Northern Illinois Huskies at Buffalo Bulls

Wednesday, November 17th 2021 (7:00 PM EST)
Northern Illinois -2 (59.5)
Northern Illinois 33 - Buffalo: 27 (Mid-American)

Huskies (9 - 5) (9 - 4 - 1)
Coach Thomas Hammock (6 - 15)
Avg Score : 32 - 34 (29 - 37 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 18.6 MPH
Our Line: -1.5 (SP+ NIU -2.5)
Projected Score: NIU: 34 - BUFF: 36 (70)
NIU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
NIU Travel: 515 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bulls (4 - 8) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Maurice Linguist (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (35 - 29 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NIU Players
BUFF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northern Illinois's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Northern Illinois at Georgia Tech	+19.0	57.0	W 22 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Northern Illinois vs Wyoming	+7.0	44.0	L 43 - 50	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Northern Illinois at Michigan	+27.5	54.5	L 10 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/25	Northern Illinois vs Maine	-21.5	62.0	W 41 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan	+0.0	62.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Northern Illinois at Toledo	+13.0	51.5	W 22 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green	-9.0	44.5	W 34 - 26	O	N
Sat 10/23	Northern Illinois at Central Michigan	+6.0	56.0	W 39 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/3	Northern Illinois at Kent State	+3.5	72.0	L 47 - 52	O	N
Wed 11/10	Northern Illinois vs Ball State	+3.0	59.5	W 30 - 29	U	Y
Wed 11/17	Northern Illinois at Buffalo	-2.0	59.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Tue 11/23	Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan	+6.5	60.0	L 21 - 42	O	N
Sat 12/4	Northern Illinois vs Kent State	+3.5	75.5	W 41 - 23	U	Y
Fri 12/17	Northern Illinois vs Coastal Carolina	+11.0	63.0	L 41 - 47	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule

Buffalo's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	Buffalo vs Wagner	-44.0	54.5	W 69 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Buffalo at Nebraska	+13.5	54.0	L 3 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/18	Buffalo vs Coastal Carolina	+14.0	58.0	L 25 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Buffalo at Old Dominion	-13.0	50.5	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/2	Buffalo vs Western Michigan	+7.0	59.5	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Buffalo at Kent State	+7.0	66.0	L 38 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/16	Buffalo vs Ohio	-7.5	54.5	W 27 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/23	Buffalo at Akron	-13.5	58.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Buffalo vs Bowling Green	-13.5	51.5	L 44 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/9	Buffalo at Miami (OH)	+7.0	58.0	L 18 - 45	O	N
Wed 11/17	Buffalo vs Northern Illinois	+2.0	59.5	L 27 - 33	O	N
Tue 11/23	Buffalo at Ball State	+6.0	59.5	L 3 - 20	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU	.31	47%	32.2	49%	3.44	242	44%	187	4.18	.35	49%	33.7	53%	45%	4.37	45.3	1.3	0.9
BUFF	.18	43%	29.3	45%	3.16	196	42%	215	3.82	.31	44%	29.9	45%	43%	3.67	52	1.6	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU	#86 (.16)	42% (79)		44% (72)	3.25 (33)	204	40% (86)	179	3.39 (113)	#11 (.06)	38% (19)		41% (52)	35% (9)	3.08 (12)	42.8	1.2	1.1
BUFF	#77 (.17)	40% (104)		38% (115)	2.7 (117)	153	42% (70)	176	4.22 (41)	#72 (.17)	43% (82)		43% (71)	43% (97)	3.84 (74)	39.3	1	1.5

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Offense	14	32.2	28.8	46.7%	4.18	1.3	23	429	242	187	5.2	63%	36%	49%	44%	14%	.31
BUFF Defense	12	29.9	29	43.9%	3.67	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	45%	43%	19%	.31

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Defense	14	33.7	36.8	49%	4.37	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	53%	45%	13%	.35
BUFF Offense	12	29.3	34.8	43.2%	3.82	1.6	24	410	196	215	4.4	56%	43%	45%	42%	14%	.18

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northern Illinois	14	33:30	22.9	37%	84%	5	45.3	1.3	0.9	4.4	1.4	3	29.1
Buffalo	12	31:35	23.8	47%	58%	5.4	52	1.6	1.3	7.3	3.1	0	26

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Offense	14	63%	49%	46.4	241.5	5.2	36	.29	3.44	77%	10%	1.06
BUFF Defense	12	56%	45%	-	-	-	-	.32	3.17	72%	14%	1.37

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Defense	14	52%	53%	-	-	-	-	.37	3.65	78%	9%	1.06
BUFF Offense	12	56%	45%	44.9	195.5	4.4	30	.16	3.16	83%	9%	0.91

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Offense	14	36%	44%	14.6	25.4	187.4	7.4	12.8	15	8	.38	1.6	31%	34%	.44	4%	2
BUFF Defense	12	43%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	.37	1.8	32%	39%	.59	5%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Defense	14	48%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	.34	1.7	30%	37%	.49	4%	2.1
BUFF Offense	12	43%	42%	18.2	30.6	214.9	7	11.8	12	11	.26	1.5	28%	31%	.3	5%	1.9

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: NR
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #114
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Northern Illinois's 2021 Expected Record: -
Northern Illinois's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.1 #98
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #62
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1 #117

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: Buffalo: -2.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -7.1 Buffalo: -9.5

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -2.25 NR
Buffalo's Offense Rating: NR
Buffalo's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Buffalo's 2021 Expected Record: -
Buffalo's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.5 #104
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #90
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #106

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.8
Defense: 33.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.8

Northern Illinois's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Buffalo 36
Northern Illinois 34

Total Points: 70

Based on Last 4 Games
Northern Illinois 39
Buffalo 38

Total Points: 77

Based on Entire Season
Buffalo 34
Northern Illinois 30

Total Points: 64

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 29

Buffalo's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Northern Illinois	20	Buffalo	23	Northern Illinois -13.0	Buffalo	42.5	Over
2021	11/17	Buffalo	27	Northern Illinois	33	Northern Illinois -2	Northern Illinois	59.5	Over
2020	11/04	Northern Illinois	30	Buffalo	49	Buffalo -14	Buffalo	53.0	Over
2018	11/30	Buffalo	29	Northern Illinois	30	Buffalo -3	Northern Illinois	51.0	Over
2017	10/14	Buffalo	13	Northern Illinois	14	Northern Illinois -8	Buffalo	50.0	Under
2016	10/22	Northern Illinois	44	Buffalo	7	Northern Illinois -20	Northern Illinois	61.0	Under
2015	11/11	Buffalo	30	Northern Illinois	41	Northern Illinois -5	Northern Illinois	55.5	Over
2012	10/13	Northern Illinois	45	Buffalo	3
2011	10/22	Buffalo	30	Northern Illinois	31
2010	10/16	Northern Illinois	45	Buffalo	14
2006	09/16	Northern Illinois	31	Buffalo	13
2003	11/08	Buffalo	9	Northern Illinois	40
2000	10/27	Northern Illinois	73	Buffalo	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Buffalo	2	3	5 Overs
Northern Illinois	11	4	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 8	2 - 5	1 - 2	1 - 3
Road Teams	8 - 5	5 - 2	3 - 1	2 - 1

(#) NIU at (#) BUFF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NIU	BUFF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#98	#104
Perf GradeGrade	#105	#96
OffenseOff	#51	#99
DefenseDef	#128	#72
Spec TeamsST	#78	#89
TalentTal	#114	#124
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Northern Illinois Injury Report

Buffalo Injury Report

Northern Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	NIU Off	BUFF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#51	#72
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#62	#106
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northern Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	NIU Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#25	#27
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#16

Northern Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	NIU Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#104	#132
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#68	#8
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Buffalo on Offense


CategoryCat	BUFF Off	NIU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#99	#128
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#90	#117
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Buffalo Run Game


CategoryCat	BUFF Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	#70	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#72

Buffalo Pass Game


CategoryCat	BUFF Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	#115	#121
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#95	#127
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

NIU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 65° - Wind: 19 mph

Rematch from Week 12
Northern Illinois 2.0 (59.5)
Northern Illinois won at Buffalo this year (33-27)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Northern Illinois last year (23-20)

NIU's OC Eric Eidsness (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Derrick Jackson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

BUFF's OC Shane Montgomery (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Cauthen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD