NC State at Louisville - 2016 Matchup Preview

NC State Wolfpack at Louisville Cardinals

Saturday, October 22nd 2016 (12:00 PM EDT)
Louisville -20 (65.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Louisville 54 - NC State: 13 (ACC)

Wolfpack (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 23 (25 - 30 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NCST 2nd straight Road Game
LOU 2nd straight Home Game
NCST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -9.5 (SP+ LOU -14)
Projected Score: NCST: 22 - LOU: 34 (56)
LOU Win prob: 93% | Cover: 53%
NCST Travel: 422 miles

Cardinals (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 43 - 24 (49 - 19 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NCST Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	NC State vs William & Mary	-30.5
Sat 9/10	NC State at East Carolina	-3.5	59.0	L 30 - 33	O	N
Sat 9/17	NC State vs Old Dominion	-20.5	58.0	W 49 - 22	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1	NC State vs Wake Forest	-9.0	48.0	W 33 - 16	O	Y
Sat 10/8	NC State vs Notre Dame	+2.5	56.5	W 10 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/15	NC State at Clemson	+17.0	60.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/22	NC State at Louisville	+20.0	65.0	L 13 - 54	O	N
Sat 10/29	NC State vs Boston College	-15.5	42.0	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/5	NC State vs Florida State	+6.5	58.0	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/12	NC State at Syracuse	-7.0	62.0	W 35 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/19	NC State vs Miami	+2.5	52.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Fri 11/25	NC State at North Carolina	+10.0	63.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Mon 12/26	NC State vs Vanderbilt	-4.0	47.0	W 41 - 17	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Louisville's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Louisville vs Charlotte	-39.5	58.5	W 70 - 14	O	Y
Fri 9/9	Louisville at Syracuse	-13.0	69.0	W 62 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Louisville vs Florida State	+4.5	65.0	W 63 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Louisville at Marshall	-23.0	69.0	W 59 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Louisville at Clemson	+3.5	64.0	L 36 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/14	Louisville vs Duke	-27.5	69.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/22	Louisville vs NC State	-20.0	65.0	W 54 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Louisville at Virginia	-27.0	69.5	W 32 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/5	Louisville at Boston College	-24.5	52.0	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Louisville vs Wake Forest	-33.0	56.5	W 44 - 12	U	N
Thu 11/17	Louisville at Houston	-16.0	68.0	L 10 - 36	U	N
Sat 11/26	Louisville vs Kentucky	-26.0	70.5	L 38 - 41	O	N
Sat 12/31	Louisville vs LSU	+3.0	59.0	L 9 - 29	U	N

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	.17	43%	27	42%	2.78	156	43%	260	2.9	.08	38%	22.8	36%	38%	2.86	62.3	1.5	1.7
LOU	.33	50%	42.5	53%	3.52	242	44%	291	4.36	.06	36%	23.8	34%	36%	3.28	70.7	2.5	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)		48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)		40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	13	27	24.6	43.3%	2.9	1.5	22	416	156	260	4	51%	48%	42%	43%	15%	.17
LOU Defense	13	23.8	19	36.4%	3.28	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	34%	36%	19%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	13	22.8	30.4	38.3%	2.86	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	42%	56%	36%	38%	19%	.08
LOU Offense	13	42.5	48.8	49.5%	4.36	2.5	25	533	242	291	6	47%	51%	53%	44%	17%	.33

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	13	31:50	21.8	44%	44%	6	62.3	1.5	1.7	6.8	2.8	4	31.3
Louisville	13	28:46	24.8	41%	69%	7.8	70.7	2.5	1.9	7.5	2.3	2	32.2

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	13	51%	42%	38.8	156.2	4	23	.04	2.78	61%	8%	0.88
LOU Defense	13	49%	34%	-	-	-	-	-.07	2.54	65%	13%	0.86

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	13	42%	36%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.38	67%	12%	1.04
LOU Offense	13	47%	53%	40.4	242.2	6	37	.38	3.52	76%	12%	1.16

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	13	48%	43%	20.2	33.7	260.2	7.7	12.9	20	12	.32	1.7	33%	38%	.37	6%	1.8
LOU Defense	13	49%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.19	1.8	37%	29%	.23	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	13	56%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.15	1.5	38%	33%	.3	7%	1.7
LOU Offense	13	51%	44%	19.1	33.5	290.5	8.7	15.2	32	10	.33	1.6	32%	38%	.44	5%	1.8

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: NR
NC State's Offense Rating: NR
NC State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
NC State's 2016 Expected Record: -
NC State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #41
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.5 #58
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #19

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: Louisville: 13.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 9.4 Louisville: 22.9

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 13.95 NR
Louisville's Offense Rating: NR
Louisville's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Louisville's 2016 Expected Record: -
Louisville's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.9 #9
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #8
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #15

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

NC State Scoring
Offense: 27 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.6
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.4

NC State's 2016 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 34
NC State 22

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisville 32
NC State 22

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Louisville 36
NC State 23

Total Points: 59

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 42.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 48.8
Defense: 23.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19

Louisville's 2016 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/29	NC State	10	Louisville	13	Louisville -3.5	NC State	56.5	Under
2022	11/19	Louisville	25	NC State	10	Louisville -4	Louisville	43.0	Under
2021	10/30	NC State	28	Louisville	13	NC State -6	NC State	57.0	Under
2019	11/16	NC State	20	Louisville	34	Louisville -4.5	Louisville	52.0	Over
2018	11/17	Louisville	10	NC State	52	NC State -16	NC State	65.0	Under
2017	10/05	NC State	39	Louisville	25	Louisville -3.5	NC State	67.0	Under
2016	10/22	Louisville	54	NC State	13	Louisville -20	Louisville	65.0	Over
2015	10/03	NC State	13	Louisville	20	NC State -5	Louisville	47.5	Under
2014	10/18	Louisville	30	NC State	18	Louisville -14.5	NC State	0
2011	12/27	NC State	31	Louisville	24
2007	09/29	NC State	10	Louisville	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	7	4	2 Overs
NC State	4	5	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 5	5 - 4	3 - 2	2 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 6	4 - 5	2 - 2	2 - 3

(#) NCST at (#) LOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NCST	LOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#41	#9
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#44	#32
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

NC State Injury Report

Louisville Injury Report

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	LOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#58	#15
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	NCST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#8	#19
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

NCST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 55°

Rematch from Week 8
Louisville -20.0 (65.0)
Louisville won vs NC State this year (54-13)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat NC State in 2023 (13-10)
Louisville beat NC State in 2022 (25-10)

NCST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

LOU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD