Florida State at Louisville - 2016 Matchup Preview

(#10)Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals

Saturday, September 17th 2016 (12:00 PM EDT)
Florida State -4.5 (65.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Louisville 63 - Florida State: 20 (ACC)

Seminoles (10 - 3) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 35 - 25 (33 - 30 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -2 (SP+ FSU -1)
Projected Score: FSU: 27 - LOU: 35 (62)
FSU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
FSU Travel: 543 miles

Cardinals (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 43 - 24 (49 - 19 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FSU Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/5	Florida State vs Ole Miss	-5.0	57.5	W 45 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Florida State vs Charleston Southern	-59.5
Sat 9/17	Florida State at Louisville	-4.5	65.0	L 20 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/24	Florida State at South Florida	-5.5	64.0	W 55 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Florida State vs North Carolina	-12.0	72.5	L 35 - 37	U	N
Sat 10/8	Florida State at Miami	+1.5	61.5	W 20 - 19	U	Y
Sat 10/15	Florida State vs Wake Forest	-25.5	51.0	W 17 - 6	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Florida State vs Clemson	+3.0	58.5	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Florida State at NC State	-6.5	58.0	W 24 - 20	U	N
Fri 11/11	Florida State vs Boston College	-23.0	47.0	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Florida State at Syracuse	-20.0	65.5	W 45 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Florida State vs Florida	-5.0	47.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Fri 12/30	Florida State vs Michigan	+6.5	51.0	W 33 - 32	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

Louisville's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Louisville vs Charlotte	-39.5	58.5	W 70 - 14	O	Y
Fri 9/9	Louisville at Syracuse	-13.0	69.0	W 62 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Louisville vs Florida State	+4.5	65.0	W 63 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Louisville at Marshall	-23.0	69.0	W 59 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Louisville at Clemson	+3.5	64.0	L 36 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/14	Louisville vs Duke	-27.5	69.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/22	Louisville vs NC State	-20.0	65.0	W 54 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Louisville at Virginia	-27.0	69.5	W 32 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/5	Louisville at Boston College	-24.5	52.0	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Louisville vs Wake Forest	-33.0	56.5	W 44 - 12	U	N
Thu 11/17	Louisville at Houston	-16.0	68.0	L 10 - 36	U	N
Sat 11/26	Louisville vs Kentucky	-26.0	70.5	L 38 - 41	O	N
Sat 12/31	Louisville vs LSU	+3.0	59.0	L 9 - 29	U	N

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU	.28	49%	35.1	50%	2.92	202	45%	264	4.14	.11	38%	25	37%	37%	3.2	72.9	1.5	1.8
LOU	.33	50%	42.5	53%	3.52	242	44%	291	4.36	.06	36%	23.8	34%	36%	3.28	70.7	2.5	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU	#125 (.06)	35% (128)		40% (103)	2.9 (92)	91	31% (130)	180	2.88 (131)	#112 (.25)	41% (56)		42% (62)	39% (52)	3.62 (46)	47.9	1.8	0.5
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)		48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)		40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Offense	13	35.1	32.8	48.7%	4.14	1.5	25	466	202	264	5.1	50%	48%	50%	45%	18%	.28
LOU Defense	13	23.8	19	36.4%	3.28	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	34%	36%	19%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Defense	13	25	30.2	38.3%	3.2	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	37%	37%	19%	.11
LOU Offense	13	42.5	48.8	49.5%	4.36	2.5	25	533	242	291	6	47%	51%	53%	44%	17%	.33

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida State	13	32:55	24.7	44%	60%	7.7	72.9	1.5	1.8	7.1	3.8	1	30.2
Louisville	13	28:46	24.8	41%	69%	7.8	70.7	2.5	1.9	7.5	2.3	2	32.2

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Offense	13	50%	50%	39.8	202.3	5.1	33	.23	2.92	79%	11%	1.06
LOU Defense	13	49%	34%	-	-	-	-	-.07	2.54	65%	13%	0.86

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Defense	13	44%	37%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.74	76%	12%	1.08
LOU Offense	13	47%	53%	40.4	242.2	6	37	.38	3.52	76%	12%	1.16

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Offense	13	48%	45%	18.8	32.4	264.1	8.2	14.1	23	8	.35	1.6	31%	43%	.41	7%	1.7
LOU Defense	13	49%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.19	1.8	37%	29%	.23	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Defense	13	54%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.17	1.6	36%	30%	.28	6%	2
LOU Offense	13	51%	44%	19.1	33.5	290.5	8.7	15.2	32	10	.33	1.6	32%	38%	.44	5%	1.8

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: NR
Florida State's Offense Rating: NR
Florida State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Florida State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Florida State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.0 #7
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #5
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8 #17

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: Louisville: 13.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 24.0 Louisville: 22.9

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 13.95 NR
Louisville's Offense Rating: NR
Louisville's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Louisville's 2016 Expected Record: -
Louisville's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.9 #9
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #8
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #15

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 35.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.8
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 35
Florida State 27

Total Points: 62

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisville 34
Florida State 26

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
Louisville 37
Florida State 28

Total Points: 65

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 42.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 48.8
Defense: 23.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19

Louisville's 2016 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/02	Florida State	16	Louisville	6	Florida State -3.5	Florida State	51.0	Under
2022	09/16	Louisville	31	Florida State	35	Florida State -2.5	Florida State	57.0	Over
2021	09/25	Florida State	23	Louisville	31	Florida State -1.5	Louisville	61.0	Under
2020	10/24	Louisville	48	Florida State	16	Louisville -5.0	Louisville	63.0	Over
2019	09/21	Florida State	35	Louisville	24	Florida State -6.5	Florida State	61.0	Under
2018	09/29	Louisville	24	Florida State	28	Florida State -4.5	Louisville	47.5	Over
2017	10/21	Florida State	28	Louisville	31	Florida State -7	Louisville	58.0	Over
2016	09/17	Louisville	63	Florida State	20	Florida State -4.5	Louisville	65.0	Over
2015	10/17	Florida State	41	Louisville	21	Florida State -9	Florida State	47.0	Over
2014	10/30	Louisville	31	Florida State	42	Florida State -8.5	Florida State	0
2002	09/26	Louisville	26	Florida State	20
2000	09/22	Florida State	31	Louisville	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	5	5	6 Overs
Florida State	7	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 5	6 - 4	4 - 2	2 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 7	4 - 6	2 - 2	2 - 4

(#) FSU at (#) LOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FSU	LOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#7	#9
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#4	#32
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Florida State Injury Report

Louisville Injury Report

Florida State on Offense


CategoryCat	FSU Off	LOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#5	#15
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Florida State Run Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Florida State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	FSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#8	#17
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

FSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 73° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Florida State 4.5 (65.0)
Louisville won vs Florida State this year (63-20)

Previous Matchups
Florida State beat Louisville in 2023 (16-6)
Florida State beat Louisville in 2022 (35-31)

FSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

LOU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD