Bowling Green at Toledo - 2016 Matchup Preview

Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets

Saturday, October 15th 2016 (3:30 PM EDT)
Toledo -24 (71.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Toledo 42 - Bowling Green: 35 (Mid-American)

Falcons (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (24 - 29 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BGSU 2nd straight Road Game
BGSU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -12 (SP+ TOL -19)
Projected Score: BGSU: 16 - TOL: 33 (49)
TOL Win prob: 96% | Cover: 57%
BGSU Travel: 19 miles

Rockets (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BGSU Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Bowling Green's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Bowling Green at Ohio State	+27.0	64.0	L 10 - 77	O	N
Sat 9/10	Bowling Green vs North Dakota	-20.0
Sat 9/17	Bowling Green vs Middle Tennessee	+3.5	73.0	L 21 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/24	Bowling Green at Memphis	+16.5	67.5	L 3 - 77	O	N
Sat 10/1	Bowling Green vs Eastern Michigan	-6.5	64.5	L 25 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/8	Bowling Green at Ohio	+15.5	60.0	L 24 - 30	U	Y
Sat 10/15	Bowling Green at Toledo	+24.0	71.0	L 35 - 42	O	Y
Sat 10/22	Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)	-3.5	52.0	L 26 - 40	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/1	Bowling Green at Northern Illinois	+17.0	72.0	L 20 - 45	U	N
Wed 11/9	Bowling Green at Akron	+11.5	73.0	W 38 - 28	U	Y
Tue 11/15	Bowling Green vs Kent State	+3.0	54.0	W 42 - 7	U	Y
Fri 11/25	Bowling Green vs Buffalo	-11.0	60.0	W 27 - 19	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Toledo's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Toledo at Arkansas State	+2.5	64.0	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Toledo vs Maine	-30.0
Sat 9/17	Toledo vs Fresno State	-20.0	57.5	W 52 - 17	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 9/30	Toledo at BYU	+4.5	51.0	L 53 - 55	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Toledo at Eastern Michigan	-17.5	65.5	W 35 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/15	Toledo vs Bowling Green	-24.0	71.0	W 42 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/22	Toledo vs Central Michigan	-10.0	61.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Thu 10/27	Toledo vs Ohio	-17.5	57.0	L 26 - 31	U	N
Wed 11/2	Toledo at Akron	-8.0	72.0	W 48 - 17	U	Y
Wed 11/9	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-7.5	69.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Wed 11/16	Toledo vs Ball State	-19.0	68.5	W 37 - 19	U	N
Fri 11/25	Toledo at Western Michigan	+9.5	71.5	L 35 - 55	O	N
Sat 12/17	Toledo vs App State	-2.5	60.0	L 28 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2015)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	.35	50%	20.5	50%	3.18	180	50%	367	4.58	.16	44%	24.3	45%	41%	3.41	80.2	1.1	1.9
TOL	.22	44%	30.8	42%	2.78	208	43%	253	3.53	.03	40%	13.3	40%	38%	2.29	68.2	1.2	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2015

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Offense	14	20.5	24	50.3%	4.58	1.1	28	547	180	367	4.7	44%	56%	50%	50%	2%	.35
TOL Defense	12	13.3	7.7	39.8%	2.29	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	41%	56%	40%	38%	2%	.03

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Defense	14	24.3	29	44.2%	3.41	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	45%	41%	2%	.16
TOL Offense	12	30.8	45.8	43.9%	3.53	1.2	22	461	208	253	5.1	51%	46%	42%	43%	2%	.22

Additional Stats 2015

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Bowling Green	14	27:55	27.8	50%	53%	8.8	80.2	1.1	1.9	0	0	1	29.7
Toledo	12	29:32	22.3	46%	45%	8	68.2	1.2	1.8	0	0	1	31.8

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense	14	44%	50%	38.7	180	4.7	34	.28	3.18	74%	0%	1.07
TOL Defense	12	41%	40%	-	-	-	-	-.06	2.28	82%	0%	0.78

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense	14	49%	45%	-	-	-	-	.15	2.99	69%	0%	1
TOL Offense	12	51%	42%	41	207.9	5.1	26	.13	2.78	64%	0%	1.02

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense	14	56%	50%	28.4	42.4	366.8	8.6	12.9	47	8	.41	1.6	28%	42%	.71	2%	2.3
TOL Defense	12	56%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.13	1.5	38%	33%	.23	2%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense	14	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	20	.18	1.6	35%	42%	.44	2%	1.6
TOL Offense	12	46%	43%	19.3	34.3	253	7.4	13.1	24	10	.35	1.6	33%	38%	.43	2%	1.8

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: NR
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: NR
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Bowling Green's 2016 Expected Record: -
Bowling Green's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #93
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #93
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8 #87

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: Toledo: 8.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -6.6 Toledo: 12.3

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 8.65 NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Toledo's 2016 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.3 #26
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.6 #10
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #54

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Bowling Green's 2016 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 33
Bowling Green 16

Projected Total Points: 49

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2016 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Bowling Green	28	Toledo	23	Toledo -10.5	Bowling Green	45.5	Over
2024	10/26	Toledo	26	Bowling Green	41	Toledo -1.5	Bowling Green	47.5	Over
2023	11/14	Bowling Green	31	Toledo	32	Toledo -9.5	Bowling Green	48.5	Over
2022	11/15	Toledo	35	Bowling Green	42	Toledo -14.5	Bowling Green	47.0	Over
2021	11/10	Bowling Green	17	Toledo	49	Toledo -10.5	Toledo	50.0	Over
2020	11/04	Toledo	38	Bowling Green	3	Toledo -24	Toledo	63.0	Under
2019	10/12	Bowling Green	20	Toledo	7	Toledo -26.5	Bowling Green	65.0	Under
2018	10/06	Toledo	52	Bowling Green	36	Toledo -23	Bowling Green	71.0	Over
2017	11/15	Bowling Green	37	Toledo	66	Toledo -17.5	Toledo	66.0	Over
2016	10/15	Toledo	42	Bowling Green	35	Toledo -24	Bowling Green	71.0	Over
2015	11/17	Bowling Green	28	Toledo	44	Bowling Green -9	Toledo	72.5	Under
2014	11/19	Toledo	27	Bowling Green	20	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	0
2013	10/26	Bowling Green	25	Toledo	28	Bowling Green -3	Toledo	0
2012	09/15	Toledo	27	Bowling Green	15
2011	10/15	Bowling Green	21	Toledo	28
2010	11/17	Toledo	33	Bowling Green	14
2009	11/27	Bowling Green	38	Toledo	24
2008	11/28	Toledo	10	Bowling Green	38
2007	11/23	Bowling Green	37	Toledo	10
2006	11/21	Toledo	31	Bowling Green	21
2005	11/22	Bowling Green	41	Toledo	44
2004	11/23	Toledo	49	Bowling Green	41
2003	11/29	Bowling Green	31	Toledo	23
2001	11/23	Bowling Green	56	Toledo	21
2000	11/21	Toledo	51	Bowling Green	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	16	6	8 Overs
Bowling Green	9	7	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	5 - 8	2 - 6	3 - 2
Road Teams	10 - 15	8 - 5	2 - 3	6 - 2

(#) BGSU at (#) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BGSU	TOL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#93	#26
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#98	#77
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Bowling Green Injury Report

Toledo Injury Report

Bowling Green on Offense


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TOL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#93	#54
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Bowling Green Run Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Bowling Green Pass Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	BGSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#10	#87
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average P4

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Toledo -24.0 (71.0)
Toledo won vs Bowling Green this year (42-35)

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Toledo last year (28-23)
Bowling Green beat Toledo in 2024 (41-26)
Toledo beat Bowling Green in 2023 (32-31)

BGSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TOL's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD