App State at Toledo - 2016 Matchup Preview
App State logo   App State Mountaineers vs Toledo Rockets  Toledo logo
Saturday, December 17th 2016 (5:30 PM EST)
Toledo -2.5 (60.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
App State 31 - Toledo: 28  (RAYCOM MEDIA CAMELLIA BOWL)

 
Mountaineers (10 - 3) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (22 - 37 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -1.5  (SP+ TOL -3)
Projected Score: APP: 17 - TOL: 36 (53)
TOL Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
APP Travel: 373 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Rockets (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
App State's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1 App State at Tennessee+23.058.0L 13 - 20UY
Sat 9/10 App State vs Old Dominion-21.054.0W 31 - 7UY
Sat 9/17 App State vs Miami+4.050.5L 10 - 45ON
Sat 9/24 App State at Akron-7.056.0W 45 - 38ON
Sat 10/1 App State vs Georgia State-21.052.0W 17 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/12 App State at Louisiana-10.550.0W 24 - 0UY
Sat 10/22 App State vs Idaho-22.053.0W 37 - 19ON
Thu 10/27 App State at Georgia Southern-4.046.5W 34 - 10UY
Sat 11/5 App State vs Texas State-30.053.0W 35 - 10UN
Sat 11/12 App State at Troy+1.549.0L 24 - 28ON
Sat 11/19 App State vs UL Monroe-27.552.0W 42 - 17ON
Sat 11/26 App State at New Mexico State-17.060.0W 37 - 7UY
Sat 12/17 App State vs Toledo+2.560.0W 31 - 28UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for App State's Schedule
Toledo's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2 Toledo at Arkansas State+2.564.0W 31 - 10UY
Sat 9/10 Toledo vs Maine-30.0
Sat 9/17 Toledo vs Fresno State-20.057.5W 52 - 17OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/30 Toledo at BYU+4.551.0L 53 - 55OY
Sat 10/8 Toledo at Eastern Michigan-17.565.5W 35 - 20UN
Sat 10/15 Toledo vs Bowling Green-24.071.0W 42 - 35ON
Sat 10/22 Toledo vs Central Michigan-10.061.5W 31 - 17UY
Thu 10/27 Toledo vs Ohio-17.557.0L 26 - 31UN
Wed 11/2 Toledo at Akron-8.072.0W 48 - 17UY
Wed 11/9 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-7.569.5W 31 - 24UN
Wed 11/16 Toledo vs Ball State-19.068.5W 37 - 19UN
Fri 11/25 Toledo at Western Michigan+9.571.5L 35 - 55ON
Sat 12/17 Toledo vs App State-2.560.0L 28 - 31UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Important Stats (2015)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
APP.2548%24.246%3.0927148%1964.29.0138%29.837%38%2.556.81.71.8
TOL.2244%30.842%2.7820843%2533.53.0340%13.340%38%2.2968.21.21.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
APP0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2015
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
APP Offense1324.221.647.5%4.291.7224672711965.863%35%46%48%2%.25
TOL Defense1213.37.739.8%2.291.8 - - - - - 41%56%40%38%2%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
APP Defense1329.837.438.5%2.51.8 - - - - - 52%46%37%38%2%.01
TOL Offense1230.845.843.9%3.531.2224612082535.151%46%42%43%2%.22

Additional Stats 2015
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
App State1331:1722.543%63%6.556.81.71.800331.4
Toledo1229:3222.346%45%868.21.21.800131.8
Run Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
APP Offense1363%46%46.5271.55.825.133.0972%0%0.88
TOL Defense1241%40% - - - - -.062.2882%0%0.78
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
APP Defense1352%37% - - - - -.022.7274%0%0.82
TOL Offense1251%42%41207.95.126.132.7864%0%1.02

Pass Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
APP Offense1335%48%13.822.8195.88.614.1339.471.930%32%.332%1.9
TOL Defense1256%38% - - - - - - 12.131.538%33%.232%1.7
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
APP Defense1346%38% - - - - - - 18.091.534%29%.192%1.8
TOL Offense1246%43%19.334.32537.413.12410.351.633%38%.432%1.8

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: NR
App State's Offense Rating: NR
App State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
App State's 2016 Expected Record: -
App State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2  #43
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0  #61
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5  #23

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
App State:    Toledo: 6.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: 9.2   Toledo: 12.3




Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 6.15 NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Toledo's 2016 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.3  #26
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.6  #10
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #54

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


App State Scoring
Offense: 24.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

App State's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 36
App State 17

Projected Total Points: 53
Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2016 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201712/23Toledo0App State34Toledo -6App State61.5Under
201612/17Toledo28App State31Toledo -2.5App State60.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Toledo000 Overs
App State222 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 20 - 0
Road Teams2 - 02 - 00 - 02 - 0

App State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2016Camellia Bowl App State vs Toledo+2.560.0W 31 - 28
2015Camellia Bowl App State vs Ohio-9.5W 31 - 29
Toledo Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2016Camellia Bowl Toledo vs App State-2.560.0L 28 - 31
2015Raton Bowl Toledo vs Temple+1.0W 32 - 17
2014Godaddy Bowl Toledo vs Arkansas State-3.570.5W 63 - 44
2012Potato Bowl Toledo vs Utah State  L 15 - 41
2011Military Bowl Toledo vs Air Force  W 42 - 41
2010Caesars Bowl Toledo vs Florida International  L 32 - 34
  
(#) APP at (#) TOL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAPPTOL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #43 #26
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #119 #77
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
App State on Offense
CategoryCat
APP OffTOL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #61 #54
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
App State Run Game
CategoryCat
APP OffTOL Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
App State Pass Game
CategoryCat
APP OffTOL Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Toledo on Offense
CategoryCatTOL OffAPP Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #10 #23
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Toledo Run Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffAPP Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Toledo Pass Game
CategoryCatTOL OffAPP Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average P4

APP 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Cramton Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Toledo -2.5 (60.0)
App State won at Toledo this year (31-28)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
APP's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

TOL's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD