Thu, Oct 2 2025
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Aggie Memorial Stadium
Las Cruces, NM
·
Turf
·
30,343 cap
Sam Houston✈ 668 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
New Mexico State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
New Mexico State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
New Mexico State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
New Mexico State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Sam Houston -1.5
O/U 53.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → New Mexico State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Sam Houston 2025 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Sam Houston at Western Kentucky | +9.5L24–41 | 60.5 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Fri 8/29 | Sam Houston vs UNLV | +13.5L21–38 | 58.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Sam Houston at Hawai'i | +7.0L20–37 | 47.5 | L20–37 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Sam Houston at Texas | +39.5L0–55 | 51.5 | L0–55 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/2 | Sam Houston at New Mexico State | -1.5L10–37 | 53.5 | L10–37 | U | N |
| Thu 10/9 | Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State | +7.0L27–29 | 53.5 | L27–29 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/15 | Sam Houston vs UTEP | +3.5L17–35 | 46.5 | L17–35 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/31 | Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech | +16.5L14–55 | 48.0 | L14–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Sam Houston at Oregon State | +21.0W21–17 | 52.5 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Sam Houston vs Delaware | +11.5W26–23 | 56.5 | W26–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee | +6.5L17–31 | 53.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Sam Houston vs Florida International | +10.5L16–56 | 50.5 | L16–56 | O | N |
New Mexico State 2025 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | New Mexico State vs Bryant | -19.5W19–3 | 52.5 | W19–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | New Mexico State vs Tulsa | +3.0W21–14 | 52.5 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech | +10.0L14–49 | 42.5 | L14–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | New Mexico State at New Mexico | +16.5L20–38 | 53.5 | L20–38 | O | N |
| Thu 10/2 | New Mexico State vs Sam Houston | +1.5W37–10 | 53.5 | W37–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/14 | New Mexico State at Liberty | +10.5L27–30 | 48.5 | L27–30 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/22 | New Mexico State vs Missouri State | +2.5L17–24 | 51.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | New Mexico State at Western Kentucky | +7.5L16–35 | 53.5 | L16–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State | +11.5L21–24 | 52.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | New Mexico State at Tennessee | +41.5L9–42 | 59.5 | L9–42 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | New Mexico State at UTEP | +4.0W34–31 | 44.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee | -3.5L24–31 | 52.0 | L24–31 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ New Mexico State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ New Mexico State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ New Mexico State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
New Mexico State Edge
New Mexico State +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
New Mexico State Edge
New Mexico State +35.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
New Mexico State
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
New Mexico State
72.2 — 9.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
New Mexico State won by 27
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on New Mexico State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Sam Houston
Phil Longo #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Zack Patterson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay
Yr 1
#1
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Tyler Wright
Yr 2
#1
DC
Joe Morris
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓