New Mexico State at New Mexico Week 5 College Football Matchup New Mexico State at New Mexico Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 27 2025 · Week 5 · 🏟 University Stadium Albuquerque, NM · Turf · 39,224 cap
New Mexico State✈ 192 miSame TZ
20 38
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico State
20
New Mexico
32
P&R Line New Mexico -12.5
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas New Mexico -16.5 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
New Mexico has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor New Mexico entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
New Mexico wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
New Mexico wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
New Mexico -16.5
O/U 53.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → New Mexico · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 New Mexico Coming off BYE 🛋 New Mexico State Coming off BYE
New Mexico State 2025 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.5W19–352.5W19–3UN
Sat 9/6New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.0W21–1452.5W21–14UY
Sat 9/13New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.0L14–4942.5L14–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27New Mexico State at New Mexico+16.5L20–3853.5L20–38ON
Thu 10/2New Mexico State vs Sam Houston+1.5W37–1053.5W37–10UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/14New Mexico State at Liberty+10.5L27–3048.5L27–30OY
Wed 10/22New Mexico State vs Missouri State+2.5L17–2451.5L17–24UN
Sat 11/1New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+7.5L16–3553.5L16–35UN
Sat 11/8New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State+11.5L21–2452.5L21–24UY
Sat 11/15New Mexico State at Tennessee+41.5L9–4259.5L9–42UY
Sat 11/22New Mexico State at UTEP+4.0W34–3144.5W34–31OY
Sat 11/29New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.5L24–3152.0L24–31ON
New Mexico 2025 Schedule
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30New Mexico at Michigan+36.5L17–3452.5L17–34UY
Sat 9/6New Mexico vs Idaho State-17.5W32–2260.0W32–22UN
Fri 9/12New Mexico at UCLA+15.5W35–1052.5W35–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27New Mexico vs New Mexico State-16.5W38–2053.5W38–20OY
Fri 10/3New Mexico at San José State+1.5L28–3558.5L28–35ON
Sat 10/11New Mexico at Boise State+14.5L25–4158.5L25–41ON
Sat 10/18New Mexico vs Nevada-14.0W24–2249.5W24–22UN
Sat 10/25New Mexico vs Utah State-3.0W33–1461.5W33–14UY
Sat 11/1New Mexico at UNLV+3.5W40–3561.5W40–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15New Mexico vs Colorado State-15.5W20–1753.5W20–17UN
Sat 11/22New Mexico at Air Force-3.5W20–353.5W20–3UY
Fri 11/28New Mexico vs San Diego State+1.5W23–1741.5W23–17UY
Fri 12/26New Mexico vs Minnesota+1.5L17–2044.5L17–20UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
New Mexico PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ New Mexico
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ New Mexico
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ New Mexico
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico State #125
+0.161
New Mexico #65
+0.285
New Mexico Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #112
+0.408
New Mexico #63
+0.527
New Mexico Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #71
0.156
New Mexico #36
0.172
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
New Mexico Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #114
+6.334
New Mexico #44
+7.242
New Mexico Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #123
+0.767
New Mexico #78
+0.838
New Mexico Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #85
71.6
New Mexico #85
71.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Even
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
New Mexico Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico State
-14.9
New Mexico
1.1
Offense Rating
New Mexico State
6.3
New Mexico
17.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico State
21.2
New Mexico
16.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? New Mexico Edge
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico State #62
0.50
New Mexico #38
1.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #106
2.00
New Mexico #39
0.50
New Mexico +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? New Mexico Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico State #1
46.2
New Mexico #1
46.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #104
38.7
New Mexico #40
40.0
New Mexico +0.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
New Mexico
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
New Mexico
37.5 — 28.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
New Mexico won by 18
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on New Mexico, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Tyler Wright Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Morris Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
New Mexico
Jason Eck #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Luke Schleusner Yr 1 #1
DC Spence Nowinsky Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself