New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech Week 3 College Football Matchup New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 13 2025 · Week 3 · 🏟 Joe Aillet Stadium Ruston, LA · Turf · 28,019 cap
New Mexico State✈ 821 mi+1 hr TZ
14 49
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico State
17
LT -10
Louisiana Tech
29
P&R Line Louisiana Tech -11.5
P&R Total O/U 45.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Louisiana Tech -10 · O/U 42.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
New Mexico State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Louisiana Tech -10
O/U 42.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisiana Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico State 2025 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.5W19–352.5W19–3UN
Sat 9/6New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.0W21–1452.5W21–14UY
Sat 9/13New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.0L14–4942.5L14–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27New Mexico State at New Mexico+16.5L20–3853.5L20–38ON
Thu 10/2New Mexico State vs Sam Houston+1.5W37–1053.5W37–10UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/14New Mexico State at Liberty+10.5L27–3048.5L27–30OY
Wed 10/22New Mexico State vs Missouri State+2.5L17–2451.5L17–24UN
Sat 11/1New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+7.5L16–3553.5L16–35UN
Sat 11/8New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State+11.5L21–2452.5L21–24UY
Sat 11/15New Mexico State at Tennessee+41.5L9–4259.5L9–42UY
Sat 11/22New Mexico State at UTEP+4.0W34–3144.5W34–31OY
Sat 11/29New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.5L24–3152.0L24–31ON
Louisiana Tech 2025 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana-14.5W24–050.5W24–0UY
Sat 9/6Louisiana Tech at LSU+36.5L7–2349.5L7–23UY
Sat 9/13Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-10.0W49–1442.5W49–14OY
Sat 9/20Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss-3.0W30–2051.5W30–20UY
Sat 9/27Louisiana Tech at UTEP-3.5W30–1148.5W30–11UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State-4.5L7–3546.5L7–35UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/21Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky-5.5L27–2849.5L27–28ON
Fri 10/31Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-16.5W55–1448.0W55–14OY
Sat 11/8Louisiana Tech at Delaware-5.5L24–2557.5L24–25UN
Sat 11/15Louisiana Tech at Washington State+10.0L3–2843.5L3–28UN
Sat 11/22Louisiana Tech vs Liberty+1.5W34–2845.5W34–28OY
Sat 11/29Louisiana Tech at Missouri State+2.5W42–3045.0W42–30OY
Tue 12/30Louisiana Tech vs Coastal Carolina-10.0W23–1451.0W23–14UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Louisiana Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico State #125
+0.116
Louisiana Tech #89
+0.244
Louisiana Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #112
+0.316
Louisiana Tech #100
+0.453
Louisiana Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #71
0.156
Louisiana Tech #10
0.195
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisiana Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #114
+6.289
Louisiana Tech #109
+6.605
Louisiana Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #123
+0.746
Louisiana Tech #102
+0.819
Louisiana Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #85
71.6
Louisiana Tech #64
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Louisiana Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Louisiana Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico State
-14.8
Louisiana Tech
-4.9
Offense Rating
New Mexico State
6.3
Louisiana Tech
13.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico State
21.1
Louisiana Tech
18.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico State #62
0.00
Louisiana Tech #111
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #106
0.00
Louisiana Tech #82
2.00
New Mexico State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? New Mexico State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico State #1
66.8
Louisiana Tech #1
33.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #104
13.6
Louisiana Tech #51
47.3
New Mexico State +33.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisiana Tech
4 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
Louisiana Tech
89.0 — 5.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Louisiana Tech won by 35
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Tyler Wright Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Morris Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
11–25 (31%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tony Franklin Yr 1 #1
DC Jeremiah Johnson Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself