Sam Houston at Hawai'i Week 2 College Football Matchup Sam Houston at Hawai'i Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 6 2025 · Week 2 · 🏟 Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex Honolulu, HI · Turf · 9,000 cap
Sam Houston✈ 3,874 mi-5 hr TZ
20 37
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Sam Houston
13
Hawai'i
38
P&R Line Hawai'i -25
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Hawai'i -7.0 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Hawai'i has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Hawai'i entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Hawai'i wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Hawai'i wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Hawai'i -7.0
O/U 47.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Hawai'i · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Sam Houston 2025 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.5L24–4160.5L24–41ON
Fri 8/29Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.5L21–3858.5L21–38ON
Sat 9/6Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.0L20–3747.5L20–37ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Sam Houston at Texas+39.5L0–5551.5L0–55ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/2Sam Houston at New Mexico State-1.5L10–3753.5L10–37UN
Thu 10/9Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+7.0L27–2953.5L27–29OY
Wed 10/15Sam Houston vs UTEP+3.5L17–3546.5L17–35ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/31Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+16.5L14–5548.0L14–55ON
Sat 11/8Sam Houston at Oregon State+21.0W21–1752.5W21–17UY
Sat 11/15Sam Houston vs Delaware+11.5W26–2356.5W26–23UY
Sat 11/22Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+6.5L17–3153.5L17–31UN
Sat 11/29Sam Houston vs Florida International+10.5L16–5650.5L16–56ON
Hawai'i 2025 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Hawai'i vs Stanford-1.5W23–2053.5W23–20UY
Sat 8/30Hawai'i at Arizona+13.5L6–4055.5L6–40UN
Sat 9/6Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-7.0W37–2047.5W37–20OY
Sat 9/13Hawai'i vs Portland State-35.5W23–354.5W23–3UN
Sat 9/20Hawai'i vs Fresno State+2.5L21–2347.5L21–23UY
Sat 9/27Hawai'i at Air Force+7.0W44–3552.5W44–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Hawai'i vs Utah State+1.5W44–2657.5W44–26OY
Sat 10/18Hawai'i at Colorado State+2.5W31–1953.5W31–19UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Hawai'i at San José State+2.5L38–4555.5L38–45ON
Sat 11/8Hawai'i vs San Diego State+6.5W38–648.5W38–6UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/21Hawai'i at UNLV+2.5L10–3864.5L10–38UN
Sat 11/29Hawai'i vs Wyoming-8.5W27–745.0W27–7UY
Wed 12/24Hawai'i vs California-1.5W35–3150.5W35–31OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Hawai'i PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Hawai'i
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Hawai'i
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Hawai'i
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Sam Houston #131
+0.187
Hawai'i #62
+0.400
Hawai'i Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #133
+0.264
Hawai'i #47
+0.665
Hawai'i Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #100
0.144
Hawai'i #61
0.160
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Hawai'i Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #129
+6.136
Hawai'i #61
+7.625
Hawai'i Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #120
+0.786
Hawai'i #88
+0.890
Hawai'i Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #124
73.2
Hawai'i #49
70.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Hawai'i Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Hawai'i Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Sam Houston
-19.2
Hawai'i
-2.2
Offense Rating
Sam Houston
4.6
Hawai'i
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Sam Houston
23.8
Hawai'i
18.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Hawai'i Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Sam Houston #104
0.00
Hawai'i #24
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #131
1.50
Hawai'i #56
1.00
Hawai'i +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Hawai'i Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Sam Houston #1
7.6
Hawai'i #1
23.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #135
83.3
Hawai'i #50
64.0
Hawai'i +15.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Hawai'i
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Hawai'i
89.8 — 6.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Hawai'i won by 17
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Hawai'i with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Sam Houston
Phil Longo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Zack Patterson Yr 1 #1
DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Hawai'i
Timmy Chang #1
13–25 (34%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Timmy Chang Yr 2 #1
DC Dennis Thurman Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself