New Mexico State at Tennessee Week 12 College Football Matchup New Mexico State at Tennessee Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 15 2025 · Week 12 · 🏟 Neyland Stadium Knoxville, TN · Turf · 102,455 cap
New Mexico State✈ 1,326 mi+2 hr TZ
9 42
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico State
15
NMSU +41.5
Tennessee
46
P&R Line Tennessee -30.5
P&R Total O/U 60.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Tennessee -41.5 · O/U 59.5
Matchup Prediction
Tennessee has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Tennessee entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Tennessee wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Tennessee wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Tennessee -41.5
O/U 59.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Tennessee · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Tennessee Coming off BYE
New Mexico State 2025 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.5W19–352.5W19–3UN
Sat 9/6New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.0W21–1452.5W21–14UY
Sat 9/13New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.0L14–4942.5L14–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27New Mexico State at New Mexico+16.5L20–3853.5L20–38ON
Thu 10/2New Mexico State vs Sam Houston+1.5W37–1053.5W37–10UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/14New Mexico State at Liberty+10.5L27–3048.5L27–30OY
Wed 10/22New Mexico State vs Missouri State+2.5L17–2451.5L17–24UN
Sat 11/1New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+7.5L16–3553.5L16–35UN
Sat 11/8New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State+11.5L21–2452.5L21–24UY
Sat 11/15New Mexico State at Tennessee+41.5L9–4259.5L9–42UY
Sat 11/22New Mexico State at UTEP+4.0W34–3144.5W34–31OY
Sat 11/29New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.5L24–3152.0L24–31ON
Tennessee 2025 Schedule
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Tennessee vs Syracuse-13.5W45–2653.5W45–26OY
Sat 9/6Tennessee vs East Tennessee State-39.5W72–1758.5W72–17OY
Sat 9/13Tennessee vs Georgia+3.5L41–4450.5L41–44OY
Sat 9/20Tennessee vs UAB-39.5W56–2469.5W56–24ON
Sat 9/27Tennessee at Mississippi State-7.5W41–3463.5W41–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Tennessee vs Arkansas-10.0W34–3168.5W34–31UN
Sat 10/18Tennessee at Alabama+8.5L20–3760.5L20–37UN
Sat 10/25Tennessee at Kentucky-7.5W56–3455.5W56–34OY
Sat 11/1Tennessee vs Oklahoma-3.0L27–3355.5L27–33ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Tennessee vs New Mexico State-41.5W42–959.5W42–9UN
Sat 11/22Tennessee at Florida-3.5W31–1157.5W31–11UY
Sat 11/29Tennessee vs Vanderbilt-2.0L24–4566.5L24–45ON
Tue 12/30Tennessee vs Illinois-3.0L28–3062.5L28–30UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Tennessee PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Tennessee
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Tennessee
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico State #125
+0.213
Tennessee #5
+0.437
Tennessee Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #112
+0.393
Tennessee #19
+0.676
Tennessee Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #71
0.156
Tennessee #19
0.184
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Tennessee Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #114
+7.302
Tennessee #9
+7.971
Tennessee Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #123
+0.812
Tennessee #5
+0.926
Tennessee Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #85
71.6
Tennessee #92
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
New Mexico State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Tennessee Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico State
-14.8
Tennessee
13.5
Offense Rating
New Mexico State
6.3
Tennessee
22.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico State
21.1
Tennessee
8.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Tennessee Edge
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico State #62
1.00
Tennessee #19
1.38
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #106
1.50
Tennessee #75
1.00
Tennessee +0.38
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Tennessee Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico State #1
32.9
Tennessee #1
64.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #104
48.0
Tennessee #15
23.6
Tennessee +31.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tennessee
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Tennessee
91.3 — 3.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Tennessee won by 33
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Tennessee with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Tyler Wright Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Morris Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Tennessee
Josh Heupel #1
37–14 (73%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Joey Halzle Yr 3 #1
DC Tim Banks Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself