Sat, Aug 30 2025
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Week 1
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🏟 Aggie Memorial Stadium
Las Cruces, NM
·
Turf
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30,343 cap
Bryant✈ 2,034 mi-2 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
New Mexico State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
New Mexico State -19.5
O/U 52.5
ESPN Bet
Bryant 2025 Schedule
Bryant's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Bryant at New Mexico State | +19.5L3–19 | 52.5 | L3–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Bryant at Massachusetts | +14.5W27–26 | 52.0 | W27–26 | O | Y |
New Mexico State 2025 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | New Mexico State vs Bryant | -19.5W19–3 | 52.5 | W19–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | New Mexico State vs Tulsa | +3.0W21–14 | 52.5 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech | +10.0L14–49 | 42.5 | L14–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | New Mexico State at New Mexico | +16.5L20–38 | 53.5 | L20–38 | O | N |
| Thu 10/2 | New Mexico State vs Sam Houston | +1.5W37–10 | 53.5 | W37–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/14 | New Mexico State at Liberty | +10.5L27–30 | 48.5 | L27–30 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/22 | New Mexico State vs Missouri State | +2.5L17–24 | 51.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | New Mexico State at Western Kentucky | +7.5L16–35 | 53.5 | L16–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State | +11.5L21–24 | 52.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | New Mexico State at Tennessee | +41.5L9–42 | 59.5 | L9–42 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | New Mexico State at UTEP | +4.0W34–31 | 44.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee | -3.5L24–31 | 52.0 | L24–31 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Bryant Edge
Bryant +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
New Mexico State Edge
New Mexico State +25.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓