UNLV at Sam Houston Week 1 College Football Matchup UNLV at Sam Houston Matchup - Week 1
Fri, Aug 29 2025 · Week 1 · Neutral Site · 🏟 BBVA Compass Stadium Houston, TX · Turf · 22,039 cap
UNLV✈ 1,227 mi+2 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
38 21
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UNLV
41
Sam Houston
17
P&R Line UNLV -24
P&R Total O/U 58.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas UNLV -13.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
UNLV wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
UNLV -13.5
O/U 58.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UNLV · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
UNLV 2025 Schedule
UNLV's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23UNLV vs Idaho State-30.5W38–3167.0W38–31ON
Fri 8/29UNLV vs Sam Houston-13.5W38–2158.5W38–21OY
Sat 9/6UNLV vs UCLA+2.5W30–2354.5W30–23UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20UNLV at Miami (OH)-2.5W41–3849.5W41–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4UNLV at Wyoming-4.5W31–1750.5W31–17UY
Sat 10/11UNLV vs Air Force-7.0W51–4865.5W51–48ON
Sat 10/18UNLV at Boise State+12.5L31–5660.5L31–56ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1UNLV vs New Mexico-3.5L35–4061.5L35–40ON
Sat 11/8UNLV at Colorado State-5.5W42–1060.5W42–10UY
Sat 11/15UNLV vs Utah State-4.5W29–2668.5W29–26UN
Fri 11/21UNLV vs Hawai'i-2.5W38–1064.5W38–10UY
Sat 11/29UNLV at Nevada-7.5W42–1753.0W42–17OY
Fri 12/5UNLV at Boise State+6.0L21–3860.0L21–38UN
Tue 12/23UNLV vs Ohio-6.5L10–1764.5L10–17UN
Sam Houston 2025 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.5L24–4160.5L24–41ON
Fri 8/29Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.5L21–3858.5L21–38ON
Sat 9/6Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.0L20–3747.5L20–37ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Sam Houston at Texas+39.5L0–5551.5L0–55ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/2Sam Houston at New Mexico State-1.5L10–3753.5L10–37UN
Thu 10/9Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+7.0L27–2953.5L27–29OY
Wed 10/15Sam Houston vs UTEP+3.5L17–3546.5L17–35ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/31Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+16.5L14–5548.0L14–55ON
Sat 11/8Sam Houston at Oregon State+21.0W21–1752.5W21–17UY
Sat 11/15Sam Houston vs Delaware+11.5W26–2356.5W26–23UY
Sat 11/22Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+6.5L17–3153.5L17–31UN
Sat 11/29Sam Houston vs Florida International+10.5L16–5650.5L16–56ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
UNLV PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UNLV
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UNLV
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UNLV
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UNLV #15
+0.514
Sam Houston #131
+0.227
UNLV Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UNLV #33
+0.725
Sam Houston #133
+0.257
UNLV Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UNLV #86
0.149
Sam Houston #100
0.144
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UNLV Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UNLV #18
+8.300
Sam Houston #129
+6.570
UNLV Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UNLV #19
+0.947
Sam Houston #120
+0.811
UNLV Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UNLV #92
71.8
Sam Houston #124
73.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UNLV Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UNLV Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UNLV
2.0
Sam Houston
-19.2
Offense Rating
UNLV
17.2
Sam Houston
4.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UNLV
15.2
Sam Houston
23.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UNLV Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UNLV #48
0.00
Sam Houston #104
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UNLV #62
0.00
Sam Houston #131
3.00
UNLV +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UNLV Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UNLV #1
40.5
Sam Houston #1
12.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UNLV #74
38.3
Sam Houston #135
71.7
UNLV +27.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UNLV
Dan Mullen #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Corey Dennis Yr 1 #1
DC Zach Anrett Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Sam Houston
Phil Longo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Zack Patterson Yr 1 #1
DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself