New Mexico State at Western Kentucky Week 10 College Football Matchup New Mexico State at Western Kentucky Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 1 2025 · Week 10 · 🏟 Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium Bowling Green, KY · Turf · 22,113 cap
New Mexico State✈ 1,195 mi+1 hr TZ
16 35
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico State
18
Western Kentucky
35
P&R Line Western Kentucky -17
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Western Kentucky -7.5 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Western Kentucky has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Western Kentucky entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Western Kentucky wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Western Kentucky wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Western Kentucky -7.5
O/U 53.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Western Kentucky · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico State 2025 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.5W19–352.5W19–3UN
Sat 9/6New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.0W21–1452.5W21–14UY
Sat 9/13New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.0L14–4942.5L14–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27New Mexico State at New Mexico+16.5L20–3853.5L20–38ON
Thu 10/2New Mexico State vs Sam Houston+1.5W37–1053.5W37–10UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/14New Mexico State at Liberty+10.5L27–3048.5L27–30OY
Wed 10/22New Mexico State vs Missouri State+2.5L17–2451.5L17–24UN
Sat 11/1New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+7.5L16–3553.5L16–35UN
Sat 11/8New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State+11.5L21–2452.5L21–24UY
Sat 11/15New Mexico State at Tennessee+41.5L9–4259.5L9–42UY
Sat 11/22New Mexico State at UTEP+4.0W34–3144.5W34–31OY
Sat 11/29New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.5L24–3152.0L24–31ON
Western Kentucky 2025 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-9.5W41–2460.5W41–24OY
Sat 8/30Western Kentucky vs North Alabama-27.5W55–660.5W55–6OY
Sat 9/6Western Kentucky at Toledo+8.5L21–4557.5L21–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Western Kentucky vs Nevada-8.5W31–1654.5W31–16UY
Sat 9/27Western Kentucky at Missouri State-3.5W27–2259.5W27–22UY
Fri 10/3Western Kentucky at Delaware+2.5W27–2462.5W27–24UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/14Western Kentucky vs Florida International-9.5L6–2555.5L6–25UN
Tue 10/21Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech+5.5W28–2749.5W28–27OY
Sat 11/1Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-7.5W35–1653.5W35–16UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-13.5W42–2651.5W42–26OY
Sat 11/22Western Kentucky at LSU+24.5L10–1352.0L10–13UY
Sat 11/29Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-1.5L34–3756.5L34–37ON
Tue 12/23Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss+3.0W27–1659.0W27–16UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Western Kentucky PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Western Kentucky
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Kentucky
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Kentucky
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico State #125
+0.157
Western Kentucky #76
+0.268
Western Kentucky Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #112
+0.329
Western Kentucky #75
+0.499
Western Kentucky Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #71
0.156
Western Kentucky #59
0.161
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Western Kentucky Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #114
+5.934
Western Kentucky #30
+7.496
Western Kentucky Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #123
+0.738
Western Kentucky #58
+0.851
Western Kentucky Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #85
71.6
Western Kentucky #92
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
New Mexico State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Western Kentucky Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico State
-14.9
Western Kentucky
-5.5
Offense Rating
New Mexico State
6.3
Western Kentucky
11.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico State
21.2
Western Kentucky
17.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico State #62
1.00
Western Kentucky #59
1.43
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #106
1.17
Western Kentucky #52
0.86
Western Kentucky +0.43
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico State #1
39.4
Western Kentucky #1
42.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #104
39.7
Western Kentucky #66
40.3
Western Kentucky +2.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Western Kentucky
3 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Western Kentucky
62.4 — 14.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Western Kentucky won by 19
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Western Kentucky, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Tyler Wright Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Morris Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
48–31 (61%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Will Friend Yr 2 #1
DC Tyson Summers Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself