Sam Houston at Western Kentucky Week 1 College Football Matchup Sam Houston at Western Kentucky Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Aug 23 2025 · Week 1 · 🏟 Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium Bowling Green, KY · Turf · 22,113 cap
Sam Houston✈ 677 miSame TZ
24 41
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Sam Houston
15
Western Kentucky
42
P&R Line Western Kentucky -27
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Western Kentucky -9.5 · O/U 60.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Western Kentucky -9.5
O/U 60.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Western Kentucky · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Sam Houston 2025 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.5L24–4160.5L24–41ON
Fri 8/29Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.5L21–3858.5L21–38ON
Sat 9/6Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.0L20–3747.5L20–37ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Sam Houston at Texas+39.5L0–5551.5L0–55ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/2Sam Houston at New Mexico State-1.5L10–3753.5L10–37UN
Thu 10/9Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+7.0L27–2953.5L27–29OY
Wed 10/15Sam Houston vs UTEP+3.5L17–3546.5L17–35ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/31Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+16.5L14–5548.0L14–55ON
Sat 11/8Sam Houston at Oregon State+21.0W21–1752.5W21–17UY
Sat 11/15Sam Houston vs Delaware+11.5W26–2356.5W26–23UY
Sat 11/22Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+6.5L17–3153.5L17–31UN
Sat 11/29Sam Houston vs Florida International+10.5L16–5650.5L16–56ON
Western Kentucky 2025 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-9.5W41–2460.5W41–24OY
Sat 8/30Western Kentucky vs North Alabama-27.5W55–660.5W55–6OY
Sat 9/6Western Kentucky at Toledo+8.5L21–4557.5L21–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Western Kentucky vs Nevada-8.5W31–1654.5W31–16UY
Sat 9/27Western Kentucky at Missouri State-3.5W27–2259.5W27–22UY
Fri 10/3Western Kentucky at Delaware+2.5W27–2462.5W27–24UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/14Western Kentucky vs Florida International-9.5L6–2555.5L6–25UN
Tue 10/21Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech+5.5W28–2749.5W28–27OY
Sat 11/1Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-7.5W35–1653.5W35–16UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-13.5W42–2651.5W42–26OY
Sat 11/22Western Kentucky at LSU+24.5L10–1352.0L10–13UY
Sat 11/29Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-1.5L34–3756.5L34–37ON
Tue 12/23Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss+3.0W27–1659.0W27–16UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Western Kentucky PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Western Kentucky
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Kentucky
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Kentucky
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Sam Houston #131
+0.120
Western Kentucky #76
+0.378
Western Kentucky Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #133
+0.165
Western Kentucky #75
+0.595
Western Kentucky Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #100
0.144
Western Kentucky #59
0.161
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Western Kentucky Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #129
+5.508
Western Kentucky #30
+8.063
Western Kentucky Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #120
+0.740
Western Kentucky #58
+0.910
Western Kentucky Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #124
73.2
Western Kentucky #92
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Western Kentucky Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Western Kentucky Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Sam Houston
-19.2
Western Kentucky
-5.5
Offense Rating
Sam Houston
4.6
Western Kentucky
11.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Sam Houston
23.8
Western Kentucky
17.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Sam Houston Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Sam Houston #104
0.00
Western Kentucky #59
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #131
0.00
Western Kentucky #52
0.00
Sam Houston +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Sam Houston Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Sam Houston #1
0.0
Western Kentucky #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #135
0.0
Western Kentucky #66
0.0
Sam Houston +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Western Kentucky
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Western Kentucky
71.7 — 12.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Western Kentucky won by 17
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Western Kentucky, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Sam Houston
Phil Longo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Zack Patterson Yr 1 #1
DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
48–31 (61%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Will Friend Yr 2 #1
DC Tyson Summers Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself