Florida International at Sam Houston Week 14 College Football Matchup Florida International at Sam Houston Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 29 2025 · Week 14 · Neutral Site · 🏟 BBVA Compass Stadium Houston, TX · Turf · 22,039 cap
Florida International✈ 955 mi-1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
56 16
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Florida International
30
Sam Houston
16
P&R Line Florida International -14.5
P&R Total O/U 46
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Florida International -10.5 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
Florida International has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Florida International entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Florida International wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Florida International wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Florida International -10.5
O/U 50.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Florida International · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida International 2025 Schedule
Sam Houston 2025 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.5L24–4160.5L24–41ON
Fri 8/29Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.5L21–3858.5L21–38ON
Sat 9/6Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.0L20–3747.5L20–37ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Sam Houston at Texas+39.5L0–5551.5L0–55ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/2Sam Houston at New Mexico State-1.5L10–3753.5L10–37UN
Thu 10/9Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+7.0L27–2953.5L27–29OY
Wed 10/15Sam Houston vs UTEP+3.5L17–3546.5L17–35ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/31Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+16.5L14–5548.0L14–55ON
Sat 11/8Sam Houston at Oregon State+21.0W21–1752.5W21–17UY
Sat 11/15Sam Houston vs Delaware+11.5W26–2356.5W26–23UY
Sat 11/22Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+6.5L17–3153.5L17–31UN
Sat 11/29Sam Houston vs Florida International+10.5L16–5650.5L16–56ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Florida International PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Florida International
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida International
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida International
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Florida International #81
+0.372
Sam Houston #131
+0.178
Florida International Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Florida International #89
+0.569
Sam Houston #133
+0.272
Florida International Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Florida International #54
0.164
Sam Houston #100
0.144
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Florida International Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Florida International #35
+7.973
Sam Houston #129
+6.443
Florida International Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Florida International #93
+0.885
Sam Houston #120
+0.795
Florida International Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Florida International #46
69.9
Sam Houston #124
73.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Florida International Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Florida International Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Florida International
-4.1
Sam Houston
-19.2
Offense Rating
Florida International
11.7
Sam Houston
4.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Florida International
15.8
Sam Houston
23.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Florida International Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Florida International #77
1.30
Sam Houston #104
0.46
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida International #107
1.10
Sam Houston #131
2.00
Florida International +0.85
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Florida International Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Florida International #1
37.8
Sam Houston #1
16.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida International #94
47.2
Sam Houston #135
68.3
Florida International +21.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Florida International with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Florida International
Willie Simmons #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Nick Coleman Yr 1 #1
DC Jovan Dewitt Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Sam Houston
Phil Longo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Zack Patterson Yr 1 #1
DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself