Kennesaw State at New Mexico State Week 11 College Football Matchup Kennesaw State at New Mexico State Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 8 2025 · Week 11 · 🏟 Aggie Memorial Stadium Las Cruces, NM · Turf · 30,343 cap
Kennesaw State✈ 1,285 mi-2 hr TZ
24 21
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kennesaw State
30
New Mexico State
21
P&R Line Kennesaw State -8.5
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Kennesaw State -11.5 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Kennesaw State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Kennesaw State -11.5
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kennesaw State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Kennesaw State 2025 Schedule
Kennesaw State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Kennesaw State at Wake Forest+17.5L9–1051.5L9–10UY
Sat 9/6Kennesaw State at Indiana+35.5L9–5651.5L9–56ON
Sat 9/13Kennesaw State vs Merrimack-17.5W27–1344.5W27–13UN
Sat 9/20Kennesaw State vs Arkansas State+4.5W28–2157.5W28–21UY
Sat 9/27Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee-7.0W24–1654.5W24–16UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9Kennesaw State vs Louisiana Tech+4.5W35–746.5W35–7UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/21Kennesaw State at Florida International-3.0W45–2648.5W45–26OY
Tue 10/28Kennesaw State vs UTEP-12.5W33–2053.5W33–20UY
Sat 11/8Kennesaw State at New Mexico State-11.5W24–2152.5W24–21UN
Sat 11/15Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State-3.5L26–3556.5L26–35ON
Sat 11/22Kennesaw State vs Missouri State-6.5W41–3454.0W41–34OY
Sat 11/29Kennesaw State at Liberty-2.5W48–4255.5W48–42OY
Fri 12/5Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State-3.0W19–1562.5W19–15UY
Fri 12/19Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan+3.0L6–4147.0L6–41UN
New Mexico State 2025 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.5W19–352.5W19–3UN
Sat 9/6New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.0W21–1452.5W21–14UY
Sat 9/13New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.0L14–4942.5L14–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27New Mexico State at New Mexico+16.5L20–3853.5L20–38ON
Thu 10/2New Mexico State vs Sam Houston+1.5W37–1053.5W37–10UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/14New Mexico State at Liberty+10.5L27–3048.5L27–30OY
Wed 10/22New Mexico State vs Missouri State+2.5L17–2451.5L17–24UN
Sat 11/1New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+7.5L16–3553.5L16–35UN
Sat 11/8New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State+11.5L21–2452.5L21–24UY
Sat 11/15New Mexico State at Tennessee+41.5L9–4259.5L9–42UY
Sat 11/22New Mexico State at UTEP+4.0W34–3144.5W34–31OY
Sat 11/29New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.5L24–3152.0L24–31ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Kennesaw State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kennesaw State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kennesaw State #74
+0.275
New Mexico State #125
+0.206
Kennesaw State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #44
+0.588
New Mexico State #112
+0.363
Kennesaw State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #45
0.168
New Mexico State #71
0.156
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kennesaw State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #126
+6.232
New Mexico State #114
+6.784
New Mexico State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kennesaw State #87
+0.833
New Mexico State #123
+0.788
Kennesaw State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kennesaw State #68
71.0
New Mexico State #85
71.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kennesaw State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kennesaw State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kennesaw State
-4.3
New Mexico State
-14.9
Offense Rating
Kennesaw State
11.8
New Mexico State
6.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kennesaw State
16.0
New Mexico State
21.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Kennesaw State #52
1.00
New Mexico State #62
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kennesaw State #124
1.14
New Mexico State #106
1.43
Kennesaw State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kennesaw State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kennesaw State #1
61.2
New Mexico State #1
36.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kennesaw State #46
29.4
New Mexico State #104
42.5
Kennesaw State +25.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kennesaw State
1 — 2 sequences
GC Battle
Kennesaw State
5.5 — 91.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kennesaw State won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kennesaw State
Jerry Mack #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Mitch Militello Yr 1 #1
DC Marc Mattioli Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Tyler Wright Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Morris Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself