New Mexico State at Liberty Week 8 College Football Matchup New Mexico State at Liberty Matchup - Week 8
Tue, Oct 14 2025 · Week 8 · 🏟 Williams Stadium Lynchburg, VA · Turf · 19,200 cap
New Mexico State✈ 1,596 mi+2 hr TZ
27 30
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico State
20
Liberty
32
P&R Line Liberty -12
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Liberty -10.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
New Mexico State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor New Mexico State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
New Mexico State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
New Mexico State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Liberty -10.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Liberty · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 New Mexico State Coming off BYE
New Mexico State 2025 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.5W19–352.5W19–3UN
Sat 9/6New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.0W21–1452.5W21–14UY
Sat 9/13New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.0L14–4942.5L14–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27New Mexico State at New Mexico+16.5L20–3853.5L20–38ON
Thu 10/2New Mexico State vs Sam Houston+1.5W37–1053.5W37–10UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/14New Mexico State at Liberty+10.5L27–3048.5L27–30OY
Wed 10/22New Mexico State vs Missouri State+2.5L17–2451.5L17–24UN
Sat 11/1New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+7.5L16–3553.5L16–35UN
Sat 11/8New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State+11.5L21–2452.5L21–24UY
Sat 11/15New Mexico State at Tennessee+41.5L9–4259.5L9–42UY
Sat 11/22New Mexico State at UTEP+4.0W34–3144.5W34–31OY
Sat 11/29New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.5L24–3152.0L24–31ON
Liberty 2025 Schedule
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Liberty vs Maine-25.5W28–751.0W28–7UN
Sat 9/6Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.0L24–3450.5L24–34ON
Sat 9/13Liberty at Bowling Green-6.0L13–2351.5L13–23UN
Sat 9/20Liberty vs James Madison+7.5L13–3146.5L13–31UN
Sat 9/27Liberty at Old Dominion+14.5L7–2153.5L7–21UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/8Liberty at UTEP-1.5W19–846.5W19–8UY
Tue 10/14Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.5W30–2748.5W30–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Liberty vs Delaware-3.5W59–3052.5W59–30OY
Sat 11/8Liberty vs Missouri State-7.5L17–2151.5L17–21UN
Sat 11/15Liberty at Florida International-2.5L27–3451.5L27–34ON
Sat 11/22Liberty at Louisiana Tech-1.5L28–3445.5L28–34ON
Sat 11/29Liberty vs Kennesaw State+2.5L42–4855.5L42–48ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Liberty PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico State #125
+0.256
Liberty #75
+0.275
Liberty Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #112
+0.417
Liberty #87
+0.475
Liberty Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #71
0.156
Liberty #116
0.132
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
New Mexico State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #114
+6.766
Liberty #71
+6.963
Liberty Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #123
+0.784
Liberty #49
+0.859
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #85
71.6
Liberty #64
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Liberty Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Liberty Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico State
-14.9
Liberty
-2.9
Offense Rating
New Mexico State
6.3
Liberty
14.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico State
21.2
Liberty
17.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? New Mexico State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico State #62
0.75
Liberty #30
0.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #106
1.25
Liberty #34
1.00
New Mexico State +0.35
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? New Mexico State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico State #1
47.9
Liberty #1
27.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #104
32.7
Liberty #76
53.6
New Mexico State +20.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
New Mexico State
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Liberty
53.9 — 22.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Liberty won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on New Mexico State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Tyler Wright Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Morris Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
21–4 (84%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 3 #1
DC Skylor Magee Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself