Sam Houston at Texas Week 4 College Football Matchup Sam Houston at Texas Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 20 2025 · Week 4 · 🏟 Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium Austin, TX · Turf · 100,119 cap
Sam Houston✈ 133 miSame TZ
0 55
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Sam Houston
9
Texas
44
P&R Line Texas -35.5
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas -39.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Texas wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Texas wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Texas -39.5
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Texas 3rd straight Home Game 🛋 Sam Houston Coming off BYE
Sam Houston 2025 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.5L24–4160.5L24–41ON
Fri 8/29Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.5L21–3858.5L21–38ON
Sat 9/6Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.0L20–3747.5L20–37ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Sam Houston at Texas+39.5L0–5551.5L0–55ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/2Sam Houston at New Mexico State-1.5L10–3753.5L10–37UN
Thu 10/9Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+7.0L27–2953.5L27–29OY
Wed 10/15Sam Houston vs UTEP+3.5L17–3546.5L17–35ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/31Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+16.5L14–5548.0L14–55ON
Sat 11/8Sam Houston at Oregon State+21.0W21–1752.5W21–17UY
Sat 11/15Sam Houston vs Delaware+11.5W26–2356.5W26–23UY
Sat 11/22Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+6.5L17–3153.5L17–31UN
Sat 11/29Sam Houston vs Florida International+10.5L16–5650.5L16–56ON
Texas 2025 Schedule
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Texas at Ohio State+1.5L7–1446.5L7–14UN
Sat 9/6Texas vs San José State-37.0W38–752.5W38–7UN
Sat 9/13Texas vs UTEP-39.5W27–1052.5W27–10UN
Sat 9/20Texas vs Sam Houston-39.5W55–051.5W55–0OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Texas at Florida-4.5L21–2942.5L21–29ON
Sat 10/11Texas vs Oklahoma-2.5W23–644.5W23–6UY
Sat 10/18Texas at Kentucky-12.5W16–1345.5W16–13UN
Sat 10/25Texas at Mississippi State-8.5W45–3848.5W45–38ON
Sat 11/1Texas vs Vanderbilt-3.5W34–3148.5W34–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Texas at Georgia+3.5L10–3550.5L10–35UN
Sat 11/22Texas vs Arkansas-10.5W52–3757.5W52–37OY
Fri 11/28Texas vs Texas A&M+2.5W27–1754.5W27–17UY
Wed 12/31Texas vs Michigan-7.0W41–2750.0W41–27OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Texas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Sam Houston #131
+0.117
Texas #66
+0.395
Texas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #133
+0.212
Texas #50
+0.647
Texas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #100
0.144
Texas #24
0.179
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #129
+6.554
Texas #88
+7.370
Texas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #120
+0.763
Texas #96
+0.883
Texas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #124
73.2
Texas #20
68.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Sam Houston
-19.2
Texas
27.2
Offense Rating
Sam Houston
4.6
Texas
29.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Sam Houston
23.8
Texas
2.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Sam Houston #104
0.00
Texas #35
1.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #131
1.33
Texas #29
0.00
Texas +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Sam Houston #1
7.3
Texas #1
63.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #135
85.5
Texas #41
25.1
Texas +56.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas
5 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Texas
87.0 — 4.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas won by 55
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Sam Houston
Phil Longo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Zack Patterson Yr 1 #1
DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
36–16 (69%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Kyle Flood Yr 3 #1
DC Pete Kwiatkowski Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself