Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech Week 10 College Football Matchup Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech Matchup - Week 10
Fri, Oct 31 2025 · Week 10 · 🏟 Joe Aillet Stadium Ruston, LA · Turf · 28,019 cap
Sam Houston✈ 211 miSame TZ
14 55
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Sam Houston
15
LT -16.5
Louisiana Tech
36
P&R Line Louisiana Tech -21
P&R Total O/U 50.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Louisiana Tech -16.5 · O/U 48.0
Matchup Prediction
Louisiana Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Louisiana Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Louisiana Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Louisiana Tech wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Louisiana Tech -16.5
O/U 48.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisiana Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Louisiana Tech 2nd straight Home Game 🛋 Sam Houston Coming off BYE
Sam Houston 2025 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.5L24–4160.5L24–41ON
Fri 8/29Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.5L21–3858.5L21–38ON
Sat 9/6Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.0L20–3747.5L20–37ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Sam Houston at Texas+39.5L0–5551.5L0–55ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/2Sam Houston at New Mexico State-1.5L10–3753.5L10–37UN
Thu 10/9Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+7.0L27–2953.5L27–29OY
Wed 10/15Sam Houston vs UTEP+3.5L17–3546.5L17–35ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/31Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+16.5L14–5548.0L14–55ON
Sat 11/8Sam Houston at Oregon State+21.0W21–1752.5W21–17UY
Sat 11/15Sam Houston vs Delaware+11.5W26–2356.5W26–23UY
Sat 11/22Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+6.5L17–3153.5L17–31UN
Sat 11/29Sam Houston vs Florida International+10.5L16–5650.5L16–56ON
Louisiana Tech 2025 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana-14.5W24–050.5W24–0UY
Sat 9/6Louisiana Tech at LSU+36.5L7–2349.5L7–23UY
Sat 9/13Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-10.0W49–1442.5W49–14OY
Sat 9/20Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss-3.0W30–2051.5W30–20UY
Sat 9/27Louisiana Tech at UTEP-3.5W30–1148.5W30–11UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State-4.5L7–3546.5L7–35UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/21Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky-5.5L27–2849.5L27–28ON
Fri 10/31Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-16.5W55–1448.0W55–14OY
Sat 11/8Louisiana Tech at Delaware-5.5L24–2557.5L24–25UN
Sat 11/15Louisiana Tech at Washington State+10.0L3–2843.5L3–28UN
Sat 11/22Louisiana Tech vs Liberty+1.5W34–2845.5W34–28OY
Sat 11/29Louisiana Tech at Missouri State+2.5W42–3045.0W42–30OY
Tue 12/30Louisiana Tech vs Coastal Carolina-10.0W23–1451.0W23–14UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Louisiana Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Sam Houston #131
+0.079
Louisiana Tech #89
+0.355
Louisiana Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #133
+0.152
Louisiana Tech #100
+0.550
Louisiana Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #100
0.144
Louisiana Tech #10
0.195
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisiana Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #129
+5.863
Louisiana Tech #109
+7.172
Louisiana Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #120
+0.747
Louisiana Tech #102
+0.877
Louisiana Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #124
73.2
Louisiana Tech #64
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Louisiana Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Louisiana Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Sam Houston
-19.3
Louisiana Tech
-4.9
Offense Rating
Sam Houston
4.6
Louisiana Tech
13.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Sam Houston
23.9
Louisiana Tech
18.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Sam Houston #104
0.00
Louisiana Tech #111
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #131
2.00
Louisiana Tech #82
1.33
Louisiana Tech +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Sam Houston #1
12.1
Louisiana Tech #1
55.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #135
73.4
Louisiana Tech #51
30.5
Louisiana Tech +43.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisiana Tech
4 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Louisiana Tech
95.9 — 2.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Louisiana Tech won by 41
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Louisiana Tech with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Sam Houston
Phil Longo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Zack Patterson Yr 1 #1
DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
11–25 (31%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tony Franklin Yr 1 #1
DC Jeremiah Johnson Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself