Sat, Nov 15 2025
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Nippert Stadium
Cincinnati, OH
·
Turf
·
40,000 cap
Arizona✈ 1,551 mi+3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Arizona,
while Game Control favors Cincinnati.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arizona wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Cincinnati wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Cincinnati -6.5
O/U 56.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arizona
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Arizona 2025 Schedule
Arizona's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Arizona vs Hawai'i | -13.5W40–6 | 55.5 | W40–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Arizona vs Weber State | -31.5W48–3 | 56.5 | W48–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/12 | Arizona vs Kansas State | +1.5W23–17 | 55.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Arizona at Iowa State | +4.0L14–39 | 48.5 | L14–39 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Arizona vs Oklahoma State | -21.5W41–13 | 56.5 | W41–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Arizona vs BYU | +2.5L27–33 | 46.5 | L27–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Arizona at Houston | -1.5L28–31 | 47.5 | L28–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Arizona at Colorado | -4.0W52–17 | 52.5 | W52–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Arizona vs Kansas | -5.5W24–20 | 56.5 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Arizona at Cincinnati | +6.5W30–24 | 56.5 | W30–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Arizona vs Baylor | -6.5W41–17 | 61.5 | W41–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | Arizona at Arizona State | -2.0W23–7 | 48.5 | W23–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 1/2 | Arizona vs SMU | +2.5L19–24 | 55.5 | L19–24 | U | N |
Cincinnati 2025 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Cincinnati vs Nebraska | +6.5L17–20 | 52.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Cincinnati vs Bowling Green | -21.5W34–20 | 46.5 | W34–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Cincinnati vs Northwestern State | -48.5W70–0 | 55.5 | W70–0 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Cincinnati at Kansas | +5.5W37–34 | 55.5 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Cincinnati vs Iowa State | -1.5W38–30 | 55.5 | W38–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Cincinnati vs UCF | -10.0W20–11 | 55.5 | W20–11 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Cincinnati at Oklahoma State | -23.5W49–17 | 57.5 | W49–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Cincinnati vs Baylor | -3.5W41–20 | 68.5 | W41–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Cincinnati at Utah | +11.5L14–45 | 57.5 | L14–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Cincinnati vs Arizona | -6.5L24–30 | 56.5 | L24–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Cincinnati vs BYU | +2.5L14–26 | 56.5 | L14–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Cincinnati at TCU | +3.0L23–45 | 58.5 | L23–45 | O | N |
| Fri 1/2 | Cincinnati vs Navy | +7.5L13–35 | 57.5 | L13–35 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arizona Edge
Arizona +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Cincinnati Edge
Cincinnati +5.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arizona
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Cincinnati
45.2 — 39.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Arizona won by 6
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arizona
Brent Brennan #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Seth Doege
Yr 1
#1
DC
Danny Gonzales
Yr 1
#1
Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield #1
8–16 (33%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Brad Glenn
Yr 3
#1
DC
Tyson Veidt
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓