Nebraska at Cincinnati Week 1 College Football Matchup Nebraska at Cincinnati Matchup - Week 1
Thu, Aug 28 2025 · Week 1 · Neutral Site · 🏟 Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, MO · Turf · 76,416 cap
Nebraska✈ 169 miSame TZ Cincinnati✈ 534 mi-1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
20 17
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Nebraska
23
Cincinnati
30
P&R Line Cincinnati -7
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Nebraska -6.5 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Nebraska -6.5
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Nebraska 2025 Schedule
Nebraska's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Nebraska vs Cincinnati-6.5W20–1752.5W20–17UN
Sat 9/6Nebraska vs Akron-34.0W68–047.5W68–0OY
Sat 9/13Nebraska vs Houston Christian-48.5W59–758.5W59–7OY
Sat 9/20Nebraska vs Michigan+1.5L27–3047.5L27–30ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Nebraska vs Michigan State-12.5W38–2748.5W38–27ON
Sat 10/11Nebraska at Maryland-7.0W34–3147.5W34–31ON
Fri 10/17Nebraska at Minnesota-7.0L6–2447.5L6–24UN
Sat 10/25Nebraska vs Northwestern-7.5W28–2144.5W28–21ON
Sat 11/1Nebraska vs USC+4.5L17–2159.5L17–21UY
Sat 11/8Nebraska at UCLA+1.5W28–2145.5W28–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Nebraska at Penn State+7.5L10–3745.5L10–37ON
Fri 11/28Nebraska vs Iowa+5.5L16–4038.5L16–40ON
Wed 12/31Nebraska vs Utah+13.5L22–4451.5L22–44ON
Cincinnati 2025 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Cincinnati vs Nebraska+6.5L17–2052.5L17–20UY
Sat 9/6Cincinnati vs Bowling Green-21.5W34–2046.5W34–20ON
Sat 9/13Cincinnati vs Northwestern State-48.5W70–055.5W70–0OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Cincinnati at Kansas+5.5W37–3455.5W37–34OY
Sat 10/4Cincinnati vs Iowa State-1.5W38–3055.5W38–30OY
Sat 10/11Cincinnati vs UCF-10.0W20–1155.5W20–11UN
Sat 10/18Cincinnati at Oklahoma State-23.5W49–1757.5W49–17OY
Sat 10/25Cincinnati vs Baylor-3.5W41–2068.5W41–20UY
Sat 11/1Cincinnati at Utah+11.5L14–4557.5L14–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Cincinnati vs Arizona-6.5L24–3056.5L24–30UN
Sat 11/22Cincinnati vs BYU+2.5L14–2656.5L14–26UN
Sat 11/29Cincinnati at TCU+3.0L23–4558.5L23–45ON
Fri 1/2Cincinnati vs Navy+7.5L13–3557.5L13–35UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Cincinnati PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Nebraska #77
+0.372
Cincinnati #17
+0.497
Cincinnati Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Nebraska #83
+0.486
Cincinnati #14
+0.609
Cincinnati Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Nebraska #100
0.144
Cincinnati #128
0.122
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Nebraska Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Nebraska #50
+7.856
Cincinnati #11
+8.967
Cincinnati Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Nebraska #27
+0.913
Cincinnati #25
+0.895
Nebraska Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Nebraska #15
68.2
Cincinnati #64
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Nebraska Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Nebraska Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Nebraska
4.8
Cincinnati
-1.3
Offense Rating
Nebraska
18.4
Cincinnati
13.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Nebraska
13.6
Cincinnati
15.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Nebraska Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Nebraska #81
0.00
Cincinnati #49
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Nebraska #103
0.00
Cincinnati #43
0.00
Nebraska +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Nebraska Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Nebraska #1
0.0
Cincinnati #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Nebraska #55
0.0
Cincinnati #65
0.0
Nebraska +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Cincinnati, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Nebraska
Matt Rhule #1
11–13 (46%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Dana Holgorsen Yr 1 #1
DC John Butler Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield #1
8–16 (33%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Brad Glenn Yr 3 #1
DC Tyson Veidt Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself