Sat, Sep 7 2024
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Peden Stadium
Athens, OH
·
Turf
·
24,000 cap
South Alabama✈ 683 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors South Alabama,
while Game Control favors Ohio.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
South Alabama wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
Ohio wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
South Alabama -1.5
O/U 55.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → South Alabama
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
South Alabama 2024 Schedule
South Alabama's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | South Alabama vs North Texas | -6.0L38–52 | 61.5 | L38–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | South Alabama at Ohio | -1.5L20–27 | 55.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Thu 9/12 | South Alabama vs Northwestern State | -36.5W87–10 | 60.5 | W87–10 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/19 | South Alabama at App State | +8.0W48–14 | 62.5 | W48–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | South Alabama at LSU | +21.0L10–42 | 64.5 | L10–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | South Alabama at Arkansas State | -2.5L16–18 | 62.5 | L16–18 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/15 | South Alabama vs Troy | -10.0W25–9 | 53.0 | W25–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | South Alabama vs UL Monroe | -7.0W46–17 | 45.0 | W46–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | South Alabama vs Georgia Southern | -5.5L30–34 | 60.0 | L30–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | South Alabama at Louisiana | +6.5W24–22 | 60.0 | W24–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | South Alabama at Southern Miss | -24.0W35–14 | 54.0 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | South Alabama vs Texas State | +2.5L38–45 | 60.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
| Sat 12/14 | South Alabama vs Western Michigan | -6.0W30–23 | 53.5 | W30–23 | U | Y |
Ohio 2024 Schedule
Ohio's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Ohio at Syracuse | +17.5L22–38 | 47.5 | L22–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Ohio vs South Alabama | +1.5W27–20 | 55.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Ohio vs Morgan State | -24.5W21–6 | 45.5 | W21–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Ohio at Kentucky | +19.0L6–41 | 42.0 | L6–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Ohio vs Akron | -8.5W30–10 | 46.0 | W30–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Ohio at Central Michigan | -3.0W27–25 | 50.5 | W27–25 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Ohio at Miami (OH) | +3.5L20–30 | 43.5 | L20–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Ohio vs Buffalo | -4.0W47–16 | 46.5 | W47–16 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/6 | Ohio at Kent State | -20.5W41–0 | 53.5 | W41–0 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/13 | Ohio vs Eastern Michigan | -10.5W35–10 | 51.5 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/20 | Ohio at Toledo | +1.5W24–7 | 47.0 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Ohio vs Ball State | -17.5W42–21 | 51.5 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Ohio vs Miami (OH) | +2.5W38–3 | 43.5 | W38–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/20 | Ohio vs Jacksonville State | -6.5W30–27 | 57.5 | W30–27 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ohio Edge
Ohio +4.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
South Alabama
Major Applewhite #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rob Ezell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Will Windham
Yr 1
#1
Ohio
Tim Albin #1
23–16 (59%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Brian Smith
Yr 1
#1
DC
John Hauser
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓