Eastern Michigan at Kent State Week 5 College Football Matchup Eastern Michigan at Kent State Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 28 2024 · Week 5 · 🏟 Dix Stadium Kent, OH · Turf · 25,000 cap
Eastern Michigan✈ 143 miSame TZ
52 33
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Eastern Michigan
33
Kent State
18
P&R Line Eastern Michigan -15
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Eastern Michigan -14 · O/U 46.0
Matchup Prediction
Eastern Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Eastern Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Eastern Michigan wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Eastern Michigan wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Eastern Michigan -14
O/U 46.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Eastern Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Eastern Michigan 2024 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts+2.5W28–1449.0W28–14UY
Sat 9/7Eastern Michigan at Washington+25.0L9–3048.5L9–30UY
Sat 9/14Eastern Michigan vs Jacksonville State+2.5W37–3453.5W37–34OY
Sat 9/21Eastern Michigan vs St. Francis (PA)-25.5W36–045.5W36–0UY
Sat 9/28Eastern Michigan at Kent State-14.0W52–3346.0W52–33OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Eastern Michigan vs Miami (OH)+3.0L14–3845.5L14–38ON
Sat 10/19Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan-3.5W38–3452.5W38–34OY
Sat 10/26Eastern Michigan at Akron-2.5L21–2550.5L21–25UN
Sat 11/2Eastern Michigan vs Toledo+10.0L28–2954.5L28–29OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/13Eastern Michigan at Ohio+10.5L10–3551.5L10–35UN
Wed 11/20Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo-1.0L20–3753.5L20–37ON
Sat 11/30Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan+6.5L18–2656.5L18–26UN
Kent State 2024 Schedule
Kent State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kent State at Pittsburgh+23.5L24–5555.5L24–55ON
Sat 9/7Kent State vs St. Francis (PA)-17.5L17–2349.5L17–23UN
Sat 9/14Kent State at Tennessee+49.5L0–7161.5L0–71ON
Sat 9/21Kent State at Penn State+49.0L0–5658.0L0–56UN
Sat 9/28Kent State vs Eastern Michigan+14.0L33–5246.0L33–52ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Kent State vs Ball State+3.0L35–3758.0L35–37OY
Sat 10/19Kent State at Bowling Green+24.0L6–2754.5L6–27UY
Sat 10/26Kent State at Western Michigan+19.0L21–5261.0L21–52ON
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/6Kent State vs Ohio+20.5L0–4153.5L0–41UN
Wed 11/13Kent State at Miami (OH)+31.0L7–3447.5L7–34UY
Tue 11/19Kent State vs Akron+10.5L17–3849.0L17–38ON
Tue 11/26Kent State at Buffalo+23.5L7–4350.5L7–43UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Eastern Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Eastern Michigan #117
+0.435
Kent State #131
+0.196
Eastern Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan #105
+0.568
Kent State #109
+0.498
Eastern Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan #24
0.187
Kent State #127
0.123
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Eastern Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan #105
+7.810
Kent State #130
+6.372
Eastern Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Eastern Michigan #74
+0.923
Kent State #134
+0.755
Eastern Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Eastern Michigan #68
70.8
Kent State #111
72.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Eastern Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Eastern Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Eastern Michigan
-8.6
Kent State
-16.7
Offense Rating
Eastern Michigan
10.2
Kent State
7.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Eastern Michigan
18.8
Kent State
24.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Eastern Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Eastern Michigan #67
1.33
Kent State #134
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Eastern Michigan #55
1.00
Kent State #134
5.67
Eastern Michigan +1.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Eastern Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Eastern Michigan #1
55.6
Kent State #1
5.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Eastern Michigan #92
27.5
Kent State #140
87.4
Eastern Michigan +49.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Eastern Michigan with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
52–68 (43%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Mike Piatkowski Yr 1 #1
DC Ben Needham Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kent State
Kenni Burns #1
1–11 (8%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Mark Carney Yr 1 #1
DC David Duggan Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself