San Diego State at California Week 3 College Football Matchup San Diego State at California Matchup - Week 3
Sun, Sep 15 2024 · Week 3 · 🏟 California Memorial Stadium Berkeley, CA · Turf · 62,717 cap
San Diego State✈ 454 miSame TZ
10 31
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San Diego State
12
California
37
P&R Line California -24.5
P&R Total O/U 49
Confidence 90 High
Vegas California -18.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
California wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
California -18.5
O/U 48.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → California · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
San Diego State 2024 Schedule
San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31San Diego State vs East Texas A&M-16
Sat 9/7San Diego State vs Oregon State+5.5L0–2154.5L0–21UN
Sat 9/14San Diego State at California+18.5L10–3148.5L10–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28San Diego State at Central Michigan+2.5L21–2247.5L21–22UY
Sat 10/5San Diego State vs Hawai'i-1.5W27–2447.5W27–24OY
Sat 10/12San Diego State at Wyoming+1.5W27–2443.0W27–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26San Diego State vs Washington State+17.0L26–2956.5L26–29UY
Fri 11/1San Diego State at Boise State+24.5L24–5655.5L24–56ON
Fri 11/8San Diego State vs New Mexico-1.5L16–2165.5L16–21UN
Sat 11/16San Diego State at UNLV+22.0L20–4155.5L20–41OY
Sat 11/23San Diego State at Utah State+5.0L20–4160.0L20–41ON
Sat 11/30San Diego State vs Air Force+6.5L20–3143.5L20–31ON
California 2024 Schedule
California's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31California vs UC Davis-20.5W31–1356.5W31–13UN
Sat 9/7California at Auburn+11.5W21–1452.5W21–14UY
Sat 9/14California vs San Diego State-18.5W31–1048.5W31–10UY
Sat 9/21California at Florida State+3.0L9–1444.0L9–14UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5California vs Miami+10.0L38–3954.0L38–39OY
Sat 10/12California at Pittsburgh+3.5L15–1757.5L15–17UY
Sat 10/19California vs NC State-9.5L23–2446.0L23–24ON
Sat 10/26California vs Oregon State-13.0W44–751.0W44–7UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/8California at Wake Forest-7.5W46–3654.5W46–36OY
Sat 11/16California vs Syracuse-10.5L25–3358.0L25–33UN
Sat 11/23California vs Stanford-15.0W24–2153.5W24–21UN
Sat 11/30California at SMU+11.5L6–3854.5L6–38UN
Wed 12/18California vs UNLV+3.0L13–2445.0L13–24UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
California PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ California
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ California
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ California
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San Diego State #108
+0.258
California #79
+0.400
California Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State #107
+0.360
California #72
+0.532
California Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San Diego State #131
0.119
California #42
0.178
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
California Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State #107
+6.673
California #125
+7.347
California Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San Diego State #120
+0.778
California #88
+0.876
California Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San Diego State #28
69.0
California #59
70.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San Diego State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
California Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San Diego State
3.6
California
5.3
Offense Rating
San Diego State
16.6
California
19.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San Diego State
13.0
California
13.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
San Diego State #77
0.00
California #71
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #86
0.00
California #89
0.00
San Diego State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? California Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San Diego State #1
31.7
California #1
49.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #114
51.6
California #81
21.5
California +17.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
California
1 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
California
63.4 — 12.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
California won by 21
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on California with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Sean Lewis #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Sean Lewis Yr 1 #1
DC Eric Schmidt Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
California
Justin Wilcox #1
36–43 (46%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Mike Bloesch Yr 1 #1
DC Peter Sirmon Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself