Hawai'i at San Diego State Week 6 College Football Matchup Hawai'i at San Diego State Matchup - Week 6
Sun, Oct 6 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 Snapdragon Stadium San Diego, CA · Turf · 35,000 cap
Hawai'i✈ 2,609 mi+3 hr TZ
Away
24 27
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Hawai'i
28
San Diego State
21
P&R Line Hawai'i -7
P&R Total O/U 48
Confidence 90 High
Vegas San Diego State -1.5 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Hawai'i wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
San Diego State -1.5
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Hawai'i · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Hawai'i Coming off BYE
Hawai'i 2024 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24Hawai'i vs Delaware State-38.5W35–1457.5W35–14UN
Sat 8/31Hawai'i vs UCLA+13.5L13–1655.5L13–16UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Hawai'i at Sam Houston+3.5L13–3148.5L13–31UN
Sat 9/21Hawai'i vs Northern Iowa-10.0W36–746.0W36–7UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Hawai'i at San Diego State+1.5L24–2747.5L24–27ON
Sat 10/12Hawai'i vs Boise State+21.0L7–2860.0L7–28UY
Sat 10/19Hawai'i at Washington State+18.5L10–4255.5L10–42UN
Sat 10/26Hawai'i vs Nevada-2.5W34–1342.0W34–13OY
Sat 11/2Hawai'i at Fresno State+12.0W21–2045.5W21–20UY
Sat 11/9Hawai'i vs UNLV+12.0L27–2951.5L27–29OY
Sat 11/16Hawai'i at Utah State-2.5L10–5562.0L10–55ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/30Hawai'i vs New Mexico+6.5W38–3061.5W38–30OY
San Diego State 2024 Schedule
San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31San Diego State vs East Texas A&M-16
Sat 9/7San Diego State vs Oregon State+5.5L0–2154.5L0–21UN
Sat 9/14San Diego State at California+18.5L10–3148.5L10–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28San Diego State at Central Michigan+2.5L21–2247.5L21–22UY
Sat 10/5San Diego State vs Hawai'i-1.5W27–2447.5W27–24OY
Sat 10/12San Diego State at Wyoming+1.5W27–2443.0W27–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26San Diego State vs Washington State+17.0L26–2956.5L26–29UY
Fri 11/1San Diego State at Boise State+24.5L24–5655.5L24–56ON
Fri 11/8San Diego State vs New Mexico-1.5L16–2165.5L16–21UN
Sat 11/16San Diego State at UNLV+22.0L20–4155.5L20–41OY
Sat 11/23San Diego State at Utah State+5.0L20–4160.0L20–41ON
Sat 11/30San Diego State vs Air Force+6.5L20–3143.5L20–31ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Hawai'i PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Hawai'i
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Hawai'i
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Hawai'i
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Hawai'i #82
+0.397
San Diego State #108
+0.309
Hawai'i Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Hawai'i #92
+0.493
San Diego State #107
+0.368
Hawai'i Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Hawai'i #74
0.156
San Diego State #131
0.119
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Hawai'i Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Hawai'i #81
+8.091
San Diego State #107
+7.596
Hawai'i Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Hawai'i #52
+0.902
San Diego State #120
+0.794
Hawai'i Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Hawai'i #130
74.4
San Diego State #28
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San Diego State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Hawai'i
-2.2
San Diego State
3.6
Offense Rating
Hawai'i
15.8
San Diego State
16.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Hawai'i
18.0
San Diego State
13.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Hawai'i #132
0.00
San Diego State #77
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Hawai'i #104
1.00
San Diego State #86
0.33
Hawai'i +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Hawai'i Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Hawai'i #1
58.3
San Diego State #1
36.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Hawai'i #95
28.8
San Diego State #114
45.1
Hawai'i +21.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
San Diego State
45.8 — 18.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
San Diego State won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Hawai'i
Timmy Chang #1
8–18 (31%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Timmy Chang Yr 1 #1
DC Dennis Thurman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San Diego State
Sean Lewis #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Sean Lewis Yr 1 #1
DC Eric Schmidt Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself