San Diego State at UNLV Week 12 College Football Matchup San Diego State at UNLV Matchup - Week 12
Sun, Nov 17 2024 · Week 12 · 🏟 Allegiant Stadium Las Vegas, NV · Turf · 65,000 cap
San Diego State✈ 2,694 miSame TZ
20 41
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San Diego State
15
UNLV -22
UNLV
42
P&R Line UNLV -27
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 90 High
Vegas UNLV -22 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
UNLV has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor UNLV entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
UNLV wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
UNLV wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
UNLV -22
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UNLV · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
San Diego State 2024 Schedule
San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31San Diego State vs East Texas A&M-16
Sat 9/7San Diego State vs Oregon State+5.5L0–2154.5L0–21UN
Sat 9/14San Diego State at California+18.5L10–3148.5L10–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28San Diego State at Central Michigan+2.5L21–2247.5L21–22UY
Sat 10/5San Diego State vs Hawai'i-1.5W27–2447.5W27–24OY
Sat 10/12San Diego State at Wyoming+1.5W27–2443.0W27–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26San Diego State vs Washington State+17.0L26–2956.5L26–29UY
Fri 11/1San Diego State at Boise State+24.5L24–5655.5L24–56ON
Fri 11/8San Diego State vs New Mexico-1.5L16–2165.5L16–21UN
Sat 11/16San Diego State at UNLV+22.0L20–4155.5L20–41OY
Sat 11/23San Diego State at Utah State+5.0L20–4160.0L20–41ON
Sat 11/30San Diego State vs Air Force+6.5L20–3143.5L20–31ON
UNLV 2024 Schedule
UNLV's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UNLV at Houston+3.0W27–756.0W27–7UY
Sat 9/7UNLV vs Utah Tech-41.5W72–1455.5W72–14OY
Fri 9/13UNLV vs Kansas+7.0W23–2057.0W23–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28UNLV vs Fresno State-2.5W59–1451.0W59–14OY
Fri 10/4UNLV vs Syracuse-5.5L41–4455.5L41–44ON
Fri 10/11UNLV at Utah State-19.0W50–3467.5W50–34ON
Sat 10/19UNLV at Oregon State-6.5W33–2561.0W33–25UY
Fri 10/25UNLV vs Boise State+4.0L24–2964.0L24–29UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9UNLV at Hawai'i-12.0W29–2751.5W29–27ON
Sat 11/16UNLV vs San Diego State-22.0W41–2055.5W41–20ON
Fri 11/22UNLV at San José State-7.5W27–1659.5W27–16UY
Sat 11/30UNLV vs Nevada-17.5W38–1454.5W38–14UY
Fri 12/6UNLV at Boise State+3.5L7–2157.5L7–21UN
Wed 12/18UNLV vs California-3.0W24–1345.0W24–13UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UNLV PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UNLV
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UNLV
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UNLV
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San Diego State #108
+0.235
UNLV #56
+0.441
UNLV Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State #107
+0.282
UNLV #94
+0.480
UNLV Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San Diego State #131
0.119
UNLV #27
0.185
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UNLV Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State #107
+7.494
UNLV #33
+8.540
UNLV Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San Diego State #120
+0.748
UNLV #84
+0.878
UNLV Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San Diego State #28
69.0
UNLV #3
65.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UNLV Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San Diego State
2.6
UNLV
2.0
Offense Rating
San Diego State
15.6
UNLV
17.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San Diego State
13.0
UNLV
15.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UNLV Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San Diego State #77
0.63
UNLV #52
1.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #86
0.75
UNLV #40
0.63
UNLV +0.88
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UNLV Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San Diego State #1
31.1
UNLV #1
61.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #114
47.0
UNLV #12
22.8
UNLV +30.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UNLV
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
UNLV
86.2 — 5.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
UNLV won by 21
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on UNLV with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Sean Lewis #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Sean Lewis Yr 1 #1
DC Eric Schmidt Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UNLV
Barry Odom #1
9–5 (64%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brennan Marion Yr 2 #1
DC Michael Scherer Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself