San Diego State at Utah State Week 13 College Football Matchup San Diego State at Utah State Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Romney Stadium Logan, UT · Turf · 25,513 cap
San Diego State✈ 684 mi+1 hr TZ
20 41
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San Diego State
26
USU -5
Utah State
35
P&R Line Utah State -9
P&R Total O/U 60.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Utah State -5 · O/U 60.0
Matchup Prediction
Utah State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Utah State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Utah State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Utah State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Utah State -5
O/U 60.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Utah State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Utah State 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 San Diego State 2nd straight Road Game
San Diego State 2024 Schedule
San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31San Diego State vs East Texas A&M-16
Sat 9/7San Diego State vs Oregon State+5.5L0–2154.5L0–21UN
Sat 9/14San Diego State at California+18.5L10–3148.5L10–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28San Diego State at Central Michigan+2.5L21–2247.5L21–22UY
Sat 10/5San Diego State vs Hawai'i-1.5W27–2447.5W27–24OY
Sat 10/12San Diego State at Wyoming+1.5W27–2443.0W27–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26San Diego State vs Washington State+17.0L26–2956.5L26–29UY
Fri 11/1San Diego State at Boise State+24.5L24–5655.5L24–56ON
Fri 11/8San Diego State vs New Mexico-1.5L16–2165.5L16–21UN
Sat 11/16San Diego State at UNLV+22.0L20–4155.5L20–41OY
Sat 11/23San Diego State at Utah State+5.0L20–4160.0L20–41ON
Sat 11/30San Diego State vs Air Force+6.5L20–3143.5L20–31ON
Utah State 2024 Schedule
Utah State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Utah State vs Robert Morris-18.5
Sat 9/7Utah State at USC+30.5L0–4862.5L0–48UN
Sat 9/14Utah State vs Utah+20.5L21–3843.5L21–38OY
Sat 9/21Utah State at Temple-6.5L29–4553.5L29–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Utah State at Boise State+28.0L30–6266.5L30–62ON
Fri 10/11Utah State vs UNLV+19.0L34–5067.5L34–50OY
Sat 10/19Utah State vs New Mexico+1.0L45–5078.5L45–50ON
Sat 10/26Utah State at Wyoming-2.5W27–2557.0W27–25UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Utah State at Washington State+20.5L28–4969.0L28–49ON
Sat 11/16Utah State vs Hawai'i+2.5W55–1062.0W55–10OY
Sat 11/23Utah State vs San Diego State-5.0W41–2060.0W41–20OY
Fri 11/29Utah State at Colorado State+5.5L37–4256.5L37–42OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Utah State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Utah State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Utah State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Utah State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San Diego State #108
+0.393
Utah State #34
+0.475
Utah State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State #107
+0.473
Utah State #69
+0.539
Utah State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San Diego State #131
0.119
Utah State #81
0.151
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Utah State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State #107
+7.887
Utah State #24
+8.694
Utah State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San Diego State #120
+0.848
Utah State #31
+0.917
Utah State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San Diego State #28
69.0
Utah State #90
71.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San Diego State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San Diego State
2.6
Utah State
-8.3
Offense Rating
San Diego State
15.6
Utah State
10.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San Diego State
13.0
Utah State
18.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Utah State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San Diego State #77
0.56
Utah State #60
0.89
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #86
0.89
Utah State #127
2.00
Utah State +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Utah State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San Diego State #1
28.5
Utah State #1
32.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #114
50.9
Utah State #91
49.5
Utah State +4.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Utah State
3 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Utah State
48.2 — 27.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Utah State won by 21
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Utah State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Sean Lewis #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Sean Lewis Yr 1 #1
DC Eric Schmidt Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Utah State
Blake Anderson #1
23–17 (58%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Kyle Cefalo Yr 2 #1
DC Nate Dreiling Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself