UTEP at Liberty Week 3 College Football Matchup UTEP at Liberty Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 14 2024 · Week 3 · 🏟 Williams Stadium Lynchburg, VA · Turf · 19,200 cap
UTEP✈ 1,596 mi+2 hr TZ
Away
10 28
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UTEP
15
Liberty
41
P&R Line Liberty -26
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Liberty -23.5 · O/U 57.5
Matchup Prediction
Liberty has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Liberty entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Liberty wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Liberty wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Liberty -23.5
O/U 57.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Liberty · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
UTEP 2024 Schedule
UTEP's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UTEP at Nebraska+27.5L7–4049.0L7–40UN
Sat 9/7UTEP vs Southern Utah-6.5L24–2754.5L24–27UN
Sat 9/14UTEP at Liberty+23.5L10–2857.5L10–28UY
Sat 9/21UTEP at Colorado State+8.5L17–2749.0L17–27UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/3UTEP vs Sam Houston+10.0L21–4149.5L21–41ON
Thu 10/10UTEP at Western Kentucky+19.0L17–4455.5L17–44ON
Wed 10/16UTEP vs Florida International+7.0W30–2147.0W30–21OY
Tue 10/22UTEP at Louisiana Tech+6.5L10–1449.0L10–14UY
Sat 11/2UTEP vs Middle Tennessee-2.0L13–2048.0L13–20UN
Sat 11/9UTEP vs Kennesaw State-4.5W43–3542.0W43–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23UTEP at Tennessee+41.5L0–5654.0L0–56ON
Sat 11/30UTEP at New Mexico State+3.5W42–3551.5W42–35OY
Liberty 2024 Schedule
Liberty's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Liberty vs Campbell-41.5W41–2458.5W41–24ON
Sat 9/7Liberty at New Mexico State-22.5W30–2454.5W30–24UN
Sat 9/14Liberty vs UTEP-23.5W28–1057.5W28–10UN
Sat 9/21Liberty vs East Carolina-7.5W35–2455.0W35–24OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/8Liberty vs Florida International-15.5W31–2456.0W31–24UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/23Liberty at Kennesaw State-27.0L24–2748.0L24–27ON
Wed 10/30Liberty vs Jacksonville State-2.5L21–3164.0L21–31UN
Sat 11/9Liberty at Middle Tennessee-12.5W37–1754.5W37–17UY
Sat 11/16Liberty at Massachusetts-17.0W35–3453.0W35–34ON
Sat 11/23Liberty vs Western Kentucky-1.0W38–2156.5W38–21OY
Fri 11/29Liberty at Sam Houston-2.5L18–2047.5L18–20UN
Sat 1/4Liberty vs Buffalo+4.5L7–2650.5L7–26UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Liberty PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UTEP #121
+0.170
Liberty #24
+0.390
Liberty Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UTEP #108
+0.357
Liberty #56
+0.484
Liberty Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UTEP #34
0.182
Liberty #71
0.158
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UTEP Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UTEP #132
+6.495
Liberty #43
+8.063
Liberty Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UTEP #124
+0.764
Liberty #7
+0.896
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UTEP #113
72.9
Liberty #81
71.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Liberty Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Liberty Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UTEP
-16.2
Liberty
-2.9
Offense Rating
UTEP
4.4
Liberty
14.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UTEP
20.6
Liberty
17.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Liberty Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UTEP #130
0.00
Liberty #23
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UTEP #130
4.00
Liberty #41
1.00
Liberty +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Liberty Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UTEP #1
28.2
Liberty #1
41.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UTEP #120
55.0
Liberty #102
40.8
Liberty +13.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Liberty
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Liberty
66.4 — 13.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Liberty won by 18
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Liberty with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UTEP
Scotty Walden #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jake Brown Yr 1 #1
DC J. J. Clark Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
13–1 (93%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 2 #1
DC Jack Curtis Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself