Matchup Prediction
Liberty
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Liberty entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Liberty wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Liberty wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Liberty -23.5
O/U 57.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Liberty
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
UTEP 2024 Schedule
UTEP's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | UTEP at Nebraska | +27.5L7–40 | 49.0 | L7–40 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | UTEP vs Southern Utah | -6.5L24–27 | 54.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | UTEP at Liberty | +23.5L10–28 | 57.5 | L10–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | UTEP at Colorado State | +8.5L17–27 | 49.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/3 | UTEP vs Sam Houston | +10.0L21–41 | 49.5 | L21–41 | O | N |
| Thu 10/10 | UTEP at Western Kentucky | +19.0L17–44 | 55.5 | L17–44 | O | N |
| Wed 10/16 | UTEP vs Florida International | +7.0W30–21 | 47.0 | W30–21 | O | Y |
| Tue 10/22 | UTEP at Louisiana Tech | +6.5L10–14 | 49.0 | L10–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | UTEP vs Middle Tennessee | -2.0L13–20 | 48.0 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | UTEP vs Kennesaw State | -4.5W43–35 | 42.0 | W43–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | UTEP at Tennessee | +41.5L0–56 | 54.0 | L0–56 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | UTEP at New Mexico State | +3.5W42–35 | 51.5 | W42–35 | O | Y |
Liberty 2024 Schedule
Liberty's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Liberty vs Campbell | -41.5W41–24 | 58.5 | W41–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Liberty at New Mexico State | -22.5W30–24 | 54.5 | W30–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Liberty vs UTEP | -23.5W28–10 | 57.5 | W28–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Liberty vs East Carolina | -7.5W35–24 | 55.0 | W35–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/8 | Liberty vs Florida International | -15.5W31–24 | 56.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/23 | Liberty at Kennesaw State | -27.0L24–27 | 48.0 | L24–27 | O | N |
| Wed 10/30 | Liberty vs Jacksonville State | -2.5L21–31 | 64.0 | L21–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Liberty at Middle Tennessee | -12.5W37–17 | 54.5 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Liberty at Massachusetts | -17.0W35–34 | 53.0 | W35–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Liberty vs Western Kentucky | -1.0W38–21 | 56.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Liberty at Sam Houston | -2.5L18–20 | 47.5 | L18–20 | U | N |
| Sat 1/4 | Liberty vs Buffalo | +4.5L7–26 | 50.5 | L7–26 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Liberty Edge
Liberty +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Liberty Edge
Liberty +13.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Liberty
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Liberty
66.4 — 13.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Liberty won by 18
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Liberty with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UTEP
Scotty Walden #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jake Brown
Yr 1
#1
DC
J. J. Clark
Yr 1
#1
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
13–1 (93%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Newland Isaac
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jack Curtis
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

