Fri, Aug 30 2024
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Week 1
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🏟 Folsom Field
Boulder, CO
·
Turf
·
50,183 cap
North Dakota State✈ 637 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Colorado wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Colorado -9
O/U 59.0
DraftKings
North Dakota State 2024 Schedule
North Dakota State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | North Dakota State at Colorado | +9.0L26–31 | 59.0 | L26–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/21 | North Dakota State vs South Dakota State | +3.5W28–21 | 49.5 | W28–21 | U | Y |
Colorado 2024 Schedule
Colorado's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Colorado vs North Dakota State | -9.0W31–26 | 59.0 | W31–26 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Colorado at Nebraska | +6.5L10–28 | 55.0 | L10–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Colorado at Colorado State | -7.5W28–9 | 58.5 | W28–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Colorado vs Baylor | -2.5W38–31 | 52.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Colorado at UCF | +12.5W48–21 | 60.5 | W48–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Colorado vs Kansas State | +3.5L28–31 | 54.5 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Colorado at Arizona | +2.5W34–7 | 57.5 | W34–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Colorado vs Cincinnati | -6.0W34–23 | 57.0 | W34–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Colorado at Texas Tech | -5.0W41–27 | 62.0 | W41–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Colorado vs Utah | -13.5W49–24 | 43.5 | W49–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Colorado vs Kansas | -2.5L21–37 | 59.0 | L21–37 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Colorado vs Oklahoma State | -14.5W52–0 | 66.5 | W52–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/28 | Colorado vs BYU | -3.0L14–36 | 55.5 | L14–36 | U | N |
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Dakota State Edge
North Dakota State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Colorado Edge
Colorado +25.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
North Dakota State
Tim Polasek #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jake Landry
Yr 1
#1
DC
Grant Olson
Yr 1
#1
Colorado
Deion Sanders #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Pat Shurmur
Yr 1
#1
DC
Robert Livingston
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓