Miami at California Week 6 College Football Matchup Miami at California Matchup - Week 6
Sun, Oct 6 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 California Memorial Stadium Berkeley, CA · Turf · 62,717 cap
Miami✈ 2,573 mi-3 hr TZ
Away
39 38
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami
35
MIAMI -10
California
22
P&R Line Miami -13.5
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami -10 · O/U 54.0
Matchup Prediction
Miami has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Miami wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
Miami wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Miami -10
O/U 54.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Miami · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 California Coming off BYE
Miami 2024 Schedule
Miami's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Miami at Florida-2.5W41–1754.5W41–17OY
Sat 9/7Miami vs Florida A&M-46.5W56–955.5W56–9OY
Sat 9/14Miami vs Ball State-36.5W62–055.5W62–0OY
Sat 9/21Miami at South Florida-17.0W50–1564.5W50–15OY
Fri 9/27Miami vs Virginia Tech-17.5W38–3455.5W38–34ON
Sat 10/5Miami at California-10.0W39–3854.0W39–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Miami at Louisville-4.5W52–4561.5W52–45OY
Sat 10/26Miami vs Florida State-22.5W36–1455.0W36–14UN
Sat 11/2Miami vs Duke-21.0W53–3155.5W53–31OY
Sat 11/9Miami at Georgia Tech-9.5L23–2864.5L23–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Miami vs Wake Forest-23.5W42–1467.0W42–14UY
Sat 11/30Miami at Syracuse-12.5L38–4265.5L38–42ON
Sat 12/28Miami vs Iowa State-5.0L41–4262.0L41–42ON
California 2024 Schedule
California's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31California vs UC Davis-20.5W31–1356.5W31–13UN
Sat 9/7California at Auburn+11.5W21–1452.5W21–14UY
Sat 9/14California vs San Diego State-18.5W31–1048.5W31–10UY
Sat 9/21California at Florida State+3.0L9–1444.0L9–14UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5California vs Miami+10.0L38–3954.0L38–39OY
Sat 10/12California at Pittsburgh+3.5L15–1757.5L15–17UY
Sat 10/19California vs NC State-9.5L23–2446.0L23–24ON
Sat 10/26California vs Oregon State-13.0W44–751.0W44–7UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/8California at Wake Forest-7.5W46–3654.5W46–36OY
Sat 11/16California vs Syracuse-10.5L25–3358.0L25–33UN
Sat 11/23California vs Stanford-15.0W24–2153.5W24–21UN
Sat 11/30California at SMU+11.5L6–3854.5L6–38UN
Wed 12/18California vs UNLV+3.0L13–2445.0L13–24UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Miami PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Miami
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami #2
+0.538
California #79
+0.334
Miami Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami #6
+0.674
California #72
+0.477
Miami Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami #39
0.180
California #42
0.178
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami #2
+8.187
California #125
+7.085
Miami Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami #1
+0.928
California #88
+0.797
Miami Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami #55
70.3
California #59
70.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami
24.1
California
5.3
Offense Rating
Miami
27.0
California
19.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami
2.9
California
14.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami #2
3.75
California #71
0.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami #35
1.00
California #89
0.00
Miami +3.42
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami #1
70.2
California #1
45.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami #16
16.7
California #81
27.2
Miami +25.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
California
68.3 — 14.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Miami won by 1
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
12–13 (48%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Shannon Dawson Yr 2 #1
DC Lance Guidry Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
California
Justin Wilcox #1
36–43 (46%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Mike Bloesch Yr 1 #1
DC Peter Sirmon Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself