Sat, Sep 7 2024
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Jordan-Hare Stadium
Auburn, AL
·
Turf
·
87,451 cap
California✈ 2,092 mi+2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Auburn wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Auburn -11.5
O/U 52.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Auburn
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
California 2024 Schedule
California's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | California vs UC Davis | -20.5W31–13 | 56.5 | W31–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | California at Auburn | +11.5W21–14 | 52.5 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | California vs San Diego State | -18.5W31–10 | 48.5 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | California at Florida State | +3.0L9–14 | 44.0 | L9–14 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | California vs Miami | +10.0L38–39 | 54.0 | L38–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | California at Pittsburgh | +3.5L15–17 | 57.5 | L15–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | California vs NC State | -9.5L23–24 | 46.0 | L23–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | California vs Oregon State | -13.0W44–7 | 51.0 | W44–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/8 | California at Wake Forest | -7.5W46–36 | 54.5 | W46–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | California vs Syracuse | -10.5L25–33 | 58.0 | L25–33 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | California vs Stanford | -15.0W24–21 | 53.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | California at SMU | +11.5L6–38 | 54.5 | L6–38 | U | N |
| Wed 12/18 | California vs UNLV | +3.0L13–24 | 45.0 | L13–24 | U | N |
Auburn 2024 Schedule
Auburn's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Auburn vs Alabama A&M | -48.5W73–3 | 58.5 | W73–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Auburn vs California | -11.5L14–21 | 52.5 | L14–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Auburn vs New Mexico | -25.5W45–19 | 58.5 | W45–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Auburn vs Arkansas | -2.5L14–24 | 53.5 | L14–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Auburn vs Oklahoma | -2.0L21–27 | 43.0 | L21–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Auburn at Georgia | +21.0L13–31 | 50.0 | L13–31 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Auburn at Missouri | +3.5L17–21 | 49.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Auburn at Kentucky | +2.0W24–10 | 43.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Auburn vs Vanderbilt | -7.5L7–17 | 48.0 | L7–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Auburn vs UL Monroe | -24.5W48–14 | 46.0 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Auburn vs Texas A&M | +2.5W43–41 | 47.0 | W43–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Auburn at Alabama | +10.5L14–28 | 50.5 | L14–28 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Auburn
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
California Edge
California +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Auburn Edge
Auburn +63.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Auburn with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
California
Justin Wilcox #1
36–43 (46%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Mike Bloesch
Yr 1
#1
DC
Peter Sirmon
Yr 3
#1
Auburn
Hugh Freeze #1
6–7 (46%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Derrick Nix
Yr 1
#1
DC
D. J. Durkin
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓