California at UNLV Week 1 College Football Matchup California at UNLV Matchup - Week 1
Thu, Dec 19 2024 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 SoFi Stadium Inglewood, CA · Turf · 71,500 cap
California✈ 347 miSame TZ UNLV✈ 237 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
13 24
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
California
23
CAL +3
UNLV
26
P&R Line UNLV -2.5
P&R Total O/U 48.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas UNLV -3 · O/U 45.0
Matchup Prediction
UNLV has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor UNLV entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
UNLV wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
UNLV wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
UNLV -3
O/U 45.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UNLV · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 California 2nd straight Road Game
California 2024 Schedule
California's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31California vs UC Davis-20.5W31–1356.5W31–13UN
Sat 9/7California at Auburn+11.5W21–1452.5W21–14UY
Sat 9/14California vs San Diego State-18.5W31–1048.5W31–10UY
Sat 9/21California at Florida State+3.0L9–1444.0L9–14UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5California vs Miami+10.0L38–3954.0L38–39OY
Sat 10/12California at Pittsburgh+3.5L15–1757.5L15–17UY
Sat 10/19California vs NC State-9.5L23–2446.0L23–24ON
Sat 10/26California vs Oregon State-13.0W44–751.0W44–7UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/8California at Wake Forest-7.5W46–3654.5W46–36OY
Sat 11/16California vs Syracuse-10.5L25–3358.0L25–33UN
Sat 11/23California vs Stanford-15.0W24–2153.5W24–21UN
Sat 11/30California at SMU+11.5L6–3854.5L6–38UN
Wed 12/18California vs UNLV+3.0L13–2445.0L13–24UN
UNLV 2024 Schedule
UNLV's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UNLV at Houston+3.0W27–756.0W27–7UY
Sat 9/7UNLV vs Utah Tech-41.5W72–1455.5W72–14OY
Fri 9/13UNLV vs Kansas+7.0W23–2057.0W23–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28UNLV vs Fresno State-2.5W59–1451.0W59–14OY
Fri 10/4UNLV vs Syracuse-5.5L41–4455.5L41–44ON
Fri 10/11UNLV at Utah State-19.0W50–3467.5W50–34ON
Sat 10/19UNLV at Oregon State-6.5W33–2561.0W33–25UY
Fri 10/25UNLV vs Boise State+4.0L24–2964.0L24–29UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9UNLV at Hawai'i-12.0W29–2751.5W29–27ON
Sat 11/16UNLV vs San Diego State-22.0W41–2055.5W41–20ON
Fri 11/22UNLV at San José State-7.5W27–1659.5W27–16UY
Sat 11/30UNLV vs Nevada-17.5W38–1454.5W38–14UY
Fri 12/6UNLV at Boise State+3.5L7–2157.5L7–21UN
Wed 12/18UNLV vs California-3.0W24–1345.0W24–13UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UNLV PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UNLV
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UNLV
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UNLV
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
California #79
+0.282
UNLV #56
+0.346
UNLV Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
California #72
+0.379
UNLV #94
+0.405
UNLV Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
California #42
0.178
UNLV #27
0.185
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UNLV Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
California #125
+7.119
UNLV #33
+7.491
UNLV Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
California #88
+0.789
UNLV #84
+0.820
UNLV Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
California #59
70.4
UNLV #3
65.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UNLV Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
California Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
California
5.3
UNLV
2.0
Offense Rating
California
19.2
UNLV
17.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
California
14.0
UNLV
15.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UNLV Edge
Avg sequences created per game
California #71
1.18
UNLV #52
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
California #89
1.09
UNLV #40
0.50
UNLV +0.15
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UNLV Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
California #1
42.5
UNLV #1
59.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
California #81
40.7
UNLV #12
24.6
UNLV +17.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on UNLV with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
California
Justin Wilcox #1
36–43 (46%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Mike Bloesch Yr 1 #1
DC Peter Sirmon Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UNLV
Barry Odom #1
9–5 (64%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brennan Marion Yr 2 #1
DC Michael Scherer Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself