Sat, Aug 31 2024
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Week 1
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🏟 California Memorial Stadium
Berkeley, CA
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Turf
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62,717 cap
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
California wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
California -20.5
O/U 56.5
ESPN Bet
UC Davis 2024 Schedule
UC Davis's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | UC Davis at California | +20.5L13–31 | 56.5 | L13–31 | U | Y |
California 2024 Schedule
California's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | California vs UC Davis | -20.5W31–13 | 56.5 | W31–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | California at Auburn | +11.5W21–14 | 52.5 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | California vs San Diego State | -18.5W31–10 | 48.5 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | California at Florida State | +3.0L9–14 | 44.0 | L9–14 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | California vs Miami | +10.0L38–39 | 54.0 | L38–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | California at Pittsburgh | +3.5L15–17 | 57.5 | L15–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | California vs NC State | -9.5L23–24 | 46.0 | L23–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | California vs Oregon State | -13.0W44–7 | 51.0 | W44–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/8 | California at Wake Forest | -7.5W46–36 | 54.5 | W46–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | California vs Syracuse | -10.5L25–33 | 58.0 | L25–33 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | California vs Stanford | -15.0W24–21 | 53.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | California at SMU | +11.5L6–38 | 54.5 | L6–38 | U | N |
| Wed 12/18 | California vs UNLV | +3.0L13–24 | 45.0 | L13–24 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UC Davis Edge
UC Davis +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
California Edge
California +40.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓