California at Wake Forest Week 11 College Football Matchup California at Wake Forest Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 9 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 BB&T Field Winston-Salem, NC · Turf · 31,500 cap
California✈ 2,300 mi+3 hr TZ
46 36
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
California
32
Wake Forest
22
P&R Line California -10
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas California -7.5 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
California has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor California entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
California wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
California wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
California -7.5
O/U 54.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → California · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Wake Forest Coming off BYE 🛋 California Coming off BYE
California 2024 Schedule
California's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31California vs UC Davis-20.5W31–1356.5W31–13UN
Sat 9/7California at Auburn+11.5W21–1452.5W21–14UY
Sat 9/14California vs San Diego State-18.5W31–1048.5W31–10UY
Sat 9/21California at Florida State+3.0L9–1444.0L9–14UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5California vs Miami+10.0L38–3954.0L38–39OY
Sat 10/12California at Pittsburgh+3.5L15–1757.5L15–17UY
Sat 10/19California vs NC State-9.5L23–2446.0L23–24ON
Sat 10/26California vs Oregon State-13.0W44–751.0W44–7UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/8California at Wake Forest-7.5W46–3654.5W46–36OY
Sat 11/16California vs Syracuse-10.5L25–3358.0L25–33UN
Sat 11/23California vs Stanford-15.0W24–2153.5W24–21UN
Sat 11/30California at SMU+11.5L6–3854.5L6–38UN
Wed 12/18California vs UNLV+3.0L13–2445.0L13–24UN
Wake Forest 2024 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Wake Forest vs North Carolina A&T-20.5
Sat 9/7Wake Forest vs Virginia+1.5L30–3155.5L30–31OY
Sat 9/14Wake Forest vs Ole Miss+20.5L6–4065.5L6–40UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Wake Forest vs Louisiana-3.0L38–4159.5L38–41ON
Sat 10/5Wake Forest at NC State+4.0W34–3052.5W34–30OY
Sat 10/12Wake Forest vs Clemson+21.0L14–4963.0L14–49UN
Sat 10/19Wake Forest at UConn-2.5W23–2055.5W23–20UY
Sat 10/26Wake Forest at Stanford-3.0W27–2453.0W27–24UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/8Wake Forest vs California+7.5L36–4654.5L36–46ON
Sat 11/16Wake Forest at North Carolina+10.5L24–3164.5L24–31UY
Sat 11/23Wake Forest at Miami+23.5L14–4267.0L14–42UN
Sat 11/30Wake Forest vs Duke+3.5L17–2353.5L17–23UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
California PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ California
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ California
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ California
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
California #79
+0.439
Wake Forest #104
+0.266
California Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
California #72
+0.604
Wake Forest #83
+0.438
California Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
California #42
0.178
Wake Forest #130
0.120
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
California Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
California #125
+7.188
Wake Forest #121
+6.431
California Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
California #88
+0.923
Wake Forest #81
+0.823
California Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
California #59
70.4
Wake Forest #71
71.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
California Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
California Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
California
5.3
Wake Forest
4.6
Offense Rating
California
19.2
Wake Forest
16.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
California
13.9
Wake Forest
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? California Edge
Avg sequences created per game
California #71
1.43
Wake Forest #106
0.86
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
California #89
0.57
Wake Forest #79
1.43
California +0.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? California Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
California #1
50.9
Wake Forest #1
43.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
California #81
27.7
Wake Forest #90
39.5
California +7.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on California. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
California
Justin Wilcox #1
36–43 (46%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Mike Bloesch Yr 1 #1
DC Peter Sirmon Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Wake Forest
Dave Clawson #1
63–61 (51%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Warren Ruggiero Yr 3 #1
DC Brad Lambert Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself