Coastal Carolina at UTSA Week 1 College Football Matchup Coastal Carolina at UTSA Matchup - Week 1
Mon, Dec 23 2024 · Postseason · 🏟 Brooks Stadium Conway, SC · Turf · 9,214 cap
15 44
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Coastal Carolina
24
CCU +12.5
UTSA
35
P&R Line UTSA -11.5
P&R Total O/U 59
Confidence 86 High
Vegas UTSA -12.5 · O/U 56.5
Matchup Prediction
UTSA has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor UTSA entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
UTSA wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
UTSA wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UTSA -12.5
O/U 56.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → UTSA · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Coastal Carolina 2nd straight Road Game
Coastal Carolina 2024 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Coastal Carolina at Jacksonville State+3.5W55–2754.5W55–27OY
Sat 9/7Coastal Carolina vs William & Mary-17.5W40–210.0W40–21OY
Sat 9/14Coastal Carolina at Temple-17.5W28–2051.5W28–20UN
Sat 9/21Coastal Carolina vs Virginia+3.5L24–4352.0L24–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion-4.0W45–3751.5W45–37OY
Thu 10/10Coastal Carolina at James Madison+7.0L7–3959.0L7–39UN
Sat 10/19Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana+6.0L24–3457.0L24–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Coastal Carolina at Troy-4.0L24–3852.0L24–38ON
Thu 11/7Coastal Carolina vs App State+1.5W38–2462.5W38–24UY
Sat 11/16Coastal Carolina at Marshall+7.5L19–3157.0L19–31UN
Sat 11/23Coastal Carolina vs Georgia Southern-2.0L6–2659.5L6–26UN
Sat 11/30Coastal Carolina at Georgia State+0.5W48–2752.5W48–27OY
Mon 12/23Coastal Carolina at UTSA+12.5L15–4456.5L15–44ON
UTSA 2024 Schedule
UTSA's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UTSA vs Kennesaw State-24.0W28–1649.5W28–16UN
Sat 9/7UTSA at Texas State+2.5L10–4958.5L10–49ON
Sat 9/14UTSA at Texas+36.5L7–5656.5L7–56ON
Sat 9/21UTSA vs Houston Christian-35.5W45–754.5W45–7UY
Sat 9/28UTSA at East Carolina+2.0L20–3053.5L20–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12UTSA at Rice-3.5L27–2951.0L27–29ON
Sat 10/19UTSA vs Florida Atlantic-4.0W38–2452.5W38–24OY
Sat 10/26UTSA at Tulsa-9.5L45–4652.5L45–46ON
Sat 11/2UTSA vs Memphis+7.0W44–3662.0W44–36OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/15UTSA vs North Texas-1.0W48–2773.0W48–27OY
Fri 11/22UTSA vs Temple-16.5W51–2756.0W51–27OY
Sat 11/30UTSA at Army+6.5L24–2953.5L24–29UY
Mon 12/23UTSA vs Coastal Carolina-12.5W44–1556.5W44–15OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UTSA PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UTSA
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Coastal Carolina #73
+0.312
UTSA #61
+0.412
UTSA Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #68
+0.527
UTSA #52
+0.591
UTSA Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #111
0.136
UTSA #3
0.217
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UTSA Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #36
+8.021
UTSA #94
+7.752
Coastal Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina #98
+0.748
UTSA #100
+0.835
UTSA Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina #65
70.7
UTSA #37
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UTSA Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UTSA Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
UTSA
-0.2
Offense Rating
Coastal Carolina
7.8
UTSA
16.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Coastal Carolina
22.1
UTSA
16.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UTSA Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Coastal Carolina #110
0.64
UTSA #44
1.27
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #96
1.27
UTSA #74
0.91
UTSA +0.64
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UTSA Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Coastal Carolina #1
45.6
UTSA #1
51.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #74
41.8
UTSA #64
32.6
UTSA +5.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UTSA
4 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Coastal Carolina
6.1 — 80.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
UTSA won by 29
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on UTSA. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Travis Trickett Yr 2 #1
DC Craig Naivar Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UTSA
Jeff Traylor #1
39–14 (74%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Justin Burke Yr 2 #1
DC Jess Loepp Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself