Coastal Carolina at Georgia State Week 14 College Football Matchup Coastal Carolina at Georgia State Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 30 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 Georgia State Stadium Atlanta, GA · Turf · 24,333 cap
Coastal Carolina✈ 308 miSame TZ
48 27
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Coastal Carolina
32
Georgia State
24
P&R Line Coastal Carolina -7.5
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Georgia State -0.5 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Georgia State, while Game Control favors Coastal Carolina. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Georgia State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Coastal Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia State -0.5
O/U 52.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Coastal Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Coastal Carolina 2024 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Coastal Carolina at Jacksonville State+3.5W55–2754.5W55–27OY
Sat 9/7Coastal Carolina vs William & Mary-17.5W40–210.0W40–21OY
Sat 9/14Coastal Carolina at Temple-17.5W28–2051.5W28–20UN
Sat 9/21Coastal Carolina vs Virginia+3.5L24–4352.0L24–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion-4.0W45–3751.5W45–37OY
Thu 10/10Coastal Carolina at James Madison+7.0L7–3959.0L7–39UN
Sat 10/19Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana+6.0L24–3457.0L24–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Coastal Carolina at Troy-4.0L24–3852.0L24–38ON
Thu 11/7Coastal Carolina vs App State+1.5W38–2462.5W38–24UY
Sat 11/16Coastal Carolina at Marshall+7.5L19–3157.0L19–31UN
Sat 11/23Coastal Carolina vs Georgia Southern-2.0L6–2659.5L6–26UN
Sat 11/30Coastal Carolina at Georgia State+0.5W48–2752.5W48–27OY
Mon 12/23Coastal Carolina at UTSA+12.5L15–4456.5L15–44ON
Georgia State 2024 Schedule
Georgia State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Georgia State at Georgia Tech+20.5L12–3557.0L12–35UN
Sat 9/7Georgia State vs Chattanooga-9.5W24–2151.5W24–21UN
Sat 9/14Georgia State vs Vanderbilt+8.5W36–3245.5W36–32OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Georgia State vs Georgia Southern-3.5L21–3857.5L21–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Georgia State vs Old Dominion-3.0L14–2153.0L14–21UN
Thu 10/17Georgia State at Marshall+9.5L20–3551.5L20–35ON
Sat 10/26Georgia State at App State+7.5L26–3359.0L26–33UY
Fri 11/1Georgia State at UConn+7.0L27–3448.0L27–34OY
Sat 11/9Georgia State at James Madison+14.5L7–3853.5L7–38UN
Sat 11/16Georgia State vs Arkansas State-2.5L20–2760.0L20–27UN
Sat 11/23Georgia State at Texas State+23.0W52–4459.5W52–44OY
Sat 11/30Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina-0.5L27–4852.5L27–48ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Coastal Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Coastal Carolina #73
+0.466
Georgia State #92
+0.360
Coastal Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #68
+0.635
Georgia State #78
+0.542
Coastal Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #111
0.136
Georgia State #109
0.137
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Even
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #36
+8.660
Georgia State #76
+7.971
Coastal Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina #98
+0.881
Georgia State #90
+0.846
Coastal Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina #65
70.7
Georgia State #35
69.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Georgia State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Coastal Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
Georgia State
-18.4
Offense Rating
Coastal Carolina
7.8
Georgia State
5.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Coastal Carolina
22.1
Georgia State
24.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Georgia State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Coastal Carolina #110
0.40
Georgia State #12
1.20
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #96
1.30
Georgia State #97
1.60
Georgia State +0.80
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Coastal Carolina #1
43.1
Georgia State #1
26.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #74
44.7
Georgia State #116
52.5
Coastal Carolina +16.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Coastal Carolina
1 — 3 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Coastal Carolina
10.2 — 73.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Coastal Carolina won by 21
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Travis Trickett Yr 2 #1
DC Craig Naivar Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Georgia State
Dell McGee #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jim Chaney Yr 1 #1
DC Kevin Sherrer Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself