Sat, Nov 30 2024
·
Week 14
·
🏟 Georgia State Stadium
Atlanta, GA
·
Turf
·
24,333 cap
Coastal Carolina✈ 308 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Georgia State,
while Game Control favors Coastal Carolina.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Georgia State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Coastal Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia State -0.5
O/U 52.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Coastal Carolina
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Coastal Carolina 2024 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Coastal Carolina at Jacksonville State | +3.5W55–27 | 54.5 | W55–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Coastal Carolina vs William & Mary | -17.5W40–21 | 0.0 | W40–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Coastal Carolina at Temple | -17.5W28–20 | 51.5 | W28–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Coastal Carolina vs Virginia | +3.5L24–43 | 52.0 | L24–43 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion | -4.0W45–37 | 51.5 | W45–37 | O | Y |
| Thu 10/10 | Coastal Carolina at James Madison | +7.0L7–39 | 59.0 | L7–39 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana | +6.0L24–34 | 57.0 | L24–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Coastal Carolina at Troy | -4.0L24–38 | 52.0 | L24–38 | O | N |
| Thu 11/7 | Coastal Carolina vs App State | +1.5W38–24 | 62.5 | W38–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Coastal Carolina at Marshall | +7.5L19–31 | 57.0 | L19–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Coastal Carolina vs Georgia Southern | -2.0L6–26 | 59.5 | L6–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Coastal Carolina at Georgia State | +0.5W48–27 | 52.5 | W48–27 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/23 | Coastal Carolina at UTSA | +12.5L15–44 | 56.5 | L15–44 | O | N |
Georgia State 2024 Schedule
Georgia State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Georgia State at Georgia Tech | +20.5L12–35 | 57.0 | L12–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Georgia State vs Chattanooga | -9.5W24–21 | 51.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Georgia State vs Vanderbilt | +8.5W36–32 | 45.5 | W36–32 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Georgia State vs Georgia Southern | -3.5L21–38 | 57.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Georgia State vs Old Dominion | -3.0L14–21 | 53.0 | L14–21 | U | N |
| Thu 10/17 | Georgia State at Marshall | +9.5L20–35 | 51.5 | L20–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Georgia State at App State | +7.5L26–33 | 59.0 | L26–33 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/1 | Georgia State at UConn | +7.0L27–34 | 48.0 | L27–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Georgia State at James Madison | +14.5L7–38 | 53.5 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Georgia State vs Arkansas State | -2.5L20–27 | 60.0 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Georgia State at Texas State | +23.0W52–44 | 59.5 | W52–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina | -0.5L27–48 | 52.5 | L27–48 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia State Edge
Georgia State +0.80
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Coastal Carolina Edge
Coastal Carolina +16.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Coastal Carolina
1 — 3 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Coastal Carolina
10.2 — 73.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Coastal Carolina won by 21
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
8–5 (62%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Travis Trickett
Yr 2
#1
DC
Craig Naivar
Yr 2
#1
Georgia State
Dell McGee #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jim Chaney
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kevin Sherrer
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

