Coastal Carolina at Marshall Week 12 College Football Matchup Coastal Carolina at Marshall Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 16 2024 · Week 12 · 🏟 Joan C. Edwards Stadium Huntington, WV · Turf · 38,019 cap
Coastal Carolina✈ 372 miSame TZ
19 31
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Coastal Carolina
22
Marshall
35
P&R Line Marshall -13
P&R Total O/U 57.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Marshall -7.5 · O/U 57.0
Matchup Prediction
Marshall has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Marshall entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Marshall wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Marshall wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Marshall -7.5
O/U 57.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Marshall · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Coastal Carolina 2024 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Coastal Carolina at Jacksonville State+3.5W55–2754.5W55–27OY
Sat 9/7Coastal Carolina vs William & Mary-17.5W40–210.0W40–21OY
Sat 9/14Coastal Carolina at Temple-17.5W28–2051.5W28–20UN
Sat 9/21Coastal Carolina vs Virginia+3.5L24–4352.0L24–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion-4.0W45–3751.5W45–37OY
Thu 10/10Coastal Carolina at James Madison+7.0L7–3959.0L7–39UN
Sat 10/19Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana+6.0L24–3457.0L24–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Coastal Carolina at Troy-4.0L24–3852.0L24–38ON
Thu 11/7Coastal Carolina vs App State+1.5W38–2462.5W38–24UY
Sat 11/16Coastal Carolina at Marshall+7.5L19–3157.0L19–31UN
Sat 11/23Coastal Carolina vs Georgia Southern-2.0L6–2659.5L6–26UN
Sat 11/30Coastal Carolina at Georgia State+0.5W48–2752.5W48–27OY
Mon 12/23Coastal Carolina at UTSA+12.5L15–4456.5L15–44ON
Marshall 2024 Schedule
Marshall's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Marshall vs Stony Brook-32.5W45–356.5W45–3UY
Sat 9/7Marshall at Virginia Tech+20.5L14–3152.5L14–31UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Marshall at Ohio State+40.0L14–4957.0L14–49OY
Sat 9/28Marshall vs Western Michigan-3.5W27–2053.5W27–20UY
Sat 10/5Marshall vs App State-3.0W52–3756.5W52–37OY
Sat 10/12Marshall at Georgia Southern+1.0L23–2458.5L23–24UY
Thu 10/17Marshall vs Georgia State-9.5W35–2051.5W35–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Marshall vs UL Monroe-10.5W28–2348.0W28–23ON
Sat 11/9Marshall at Southern Miss-13.5W37–353.5W37–3UY
Sat 11/16Marshall vs Coastal Carolina-7.5W31–1957.0W31–19UY
Sat 11/23Marshall at Old Dominion+3.0W42–3551.0W42–35OY
Sat 11/30Marshall at James Madison+2.5W35–3352.5W35–33OY
Sat 12/7Marshall at Louisiana+5.0W31–358.0W31–3UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Marshall PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Marshall
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Coastal Carolina #73
+0.318
Marshall #60
+0.417
Marshall Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #68
+0.386
Marshall #82
+0.531
Marshall Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #111
0.136
Marshall #19
0.190
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Marshall Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #36
+8.108
Marshall #66
+8.051
Coastal Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina #98
+0.805
Marshall #66
+0.863
Marshall Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina #65
70.7
Marshall #26
68.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Marshall Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Marshall Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
Marshall
-3.1
Offense Rating
Coastal Carolina
7.8
Marshall
13.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Coastal Carolina
22.1
Marshall
17.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Marshall Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Coastal Carolina #110
0.50
Marshall #120
0.88
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #96
1.25
Marshall #94
1.13
Marshall +0.38
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Marshall Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Coastal Carolina #1
48.8
Marshall #1
54.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #74
39.4
Marshall #22
26.5
Marshall +5.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Marshall
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Marshall
53.6 — 27.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Marshall won by 12
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Marshall. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Travis Trickett Yr 2 #1
DC Craig Naivar Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Marshall
Charles Huff #1
22–17 (56%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Seth Doege Yr 1 #1
DC Jason Semore Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself