App State at Coastal Carolina Week 11 College Football Matchup App State at Coastal Carolina Matchup - Week 11
Fri, Nov 8 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Brooks Stadium Conway, SC · Turf · 9,214 cap
App State✈ 225 miSame TZ
24 38
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
App State
31
CCU +1.5
Coastal Carolina
32
P&R Line Coastal Carolina -1
P&R Total O/U 62
Confidence 90 High
Vegas App State -1.5 · O/U 62.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors App State, while Game Control favors Coastal Carolina. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
App State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Coastal Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
App State -1.5
O/U 62.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Coastal Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
App State 2024 Schedule
App State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31App State vs East Tennessee State-35.5W38–1058.5W38–10UN
Sat 9/7App State at Clemson+13.5L20–6653.5L20–66ON
Sat 9/14App State at East Carolina+0.5W21–1956.5W21–19UY
Thu 9/19App State vs South Alabama-8.0L14–4862.5L14–48UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5App State at Marshall+3.0L37–5256.5L37–52ON
Sat 10/12App State at Louisiana+10.0L24–3464.0L24–34UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26App State vs Georgia State-7.5W33–2659.0W33–26UN
Sat 11/2App State vs Old Dominion+2.5W28–2058.0W28–20UY
Thu 11/7App State at Coastal Carolina-1.5L24–3862.5L24–38UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23App State vs James Madison+7.5W34–2057.5W34–20UY
Sat 11/30App State at Georgia Southern+2.5L20–2960.5L20–29UN
Coastal Carolina 2024 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Coastal Carolina at Jacksonville State+3.5W55–2754.5W55–27OY
Sat 9/7Coastal Carolina vs William & Mary-17.5W40–210.0W40–21OY
Sat 9/14Coastal Carolina at Temple-17.5W28–2051.5W28–20UN
Sat 9/21Coastal Carolina vs Virginia+3.5L24–4352.0L24–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion-4.0W45–3751.5W45–37OY
Thu 10/10Coastal Carolina at James Madison+7.0L7–3959.0L7–39UN
Sat 10/19Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana+6.0L24–3457.0L24–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Coastal Carolina at Troy-4.0L24–3852.0L24–38ON
Thu 11/7Coastal Carolina vs App State+1.5W38–2462.5W38–24UY
Sat 11/16Coastal Carolina at Marshall+7.5L19–3157.0L19–31UN
Sat 11/23Coastal Carolina vs Georgia Southern-2.0L6–2659.5L6–26UN
Sat 11/30Coastal Carolina at Georgia State+0.5W48–2752.5W48–27OY
Mon 12/23Coastal Carolina at UTSA+12.5L15–4456.5L15–44ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Coastal Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
App State #57
+0.422
Coastal Carolina #73
+0.479
Coastal Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
App State #41
+0.620
Coastal Carolina #68
+0.626
Coastal Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
App State #132
0.116
Coastal Carolina #111
0.136
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Coastal Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
App State #71
+8.014
Coastal Carolina #36
+9.018
Coastal Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
App State #60
+0.870
Coastal Carolina #98
+0.895
Coastal Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
App State #104
72.4
Coastal Carolina #65
70.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Coastal Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
App State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
App State
-9.7
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
Offense Rating
App State
9.0
Coastal Carolina
7.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
App State
18.7
Coastal Carolina
22.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? App State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
App State #101
0.29
Coastal Carolina #110
0.14
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
App State #116
2.00
Coastal Carolina #96
1.29
App State +0.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
App State #1
27.3
Coastal Carolina #1
44.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
App State #123
57.1
Coastal Carolina #74
43.3
Coastal Carolina +16.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Coastal Carolina
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Coastal Carolina
85.0 — 8.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Coastal Carolina won by 14
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
App State
Shawn Clark #1
35–18 (66%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Frank Ponce Yr 2 #1
DC Scott Sloan Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Travis Trickett Yr 2 #1
DC Craig Naivar Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself