Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina Week 6 College Football Matchup Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 5 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 Brooks Stadium Conway, SC · Turf · 9,214 cap
Old Dominion✈ 262 miSame TZ
37 45
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Old Dominion
29
Coastal Carolina
26
P&R Line Old Dominion -3
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Coastal Carolina -4 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Old Dominion, while Game Control favors Coastal Carolina. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Old Dominion wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Coastal Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Coastal Carolina -4
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Old Dominion · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Coastal Carolina Coming off BYE 🚌 Old Dominion 2nd straight Road Game
Old Dominion 2024 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Old Dominion at South Carolina+20.5L19–2349.5L19–23UY
Sat 9/7Old Dominion vs East Carolina-1.5L14–2053.5L14–20UN
Sat 9/14Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech+15.5L17–3747.5L17–37ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Old Dominion at Bowling Green+11.0W30–2751.5W30–27OY
Sat 10/5Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina+4.0L37–4551.5L37–45ON
Sat 10/12Old Dominion at Georgia State+3.0W21–1453.0W21–14UY
Sat 10/19Old Dominion vs Texas State+10.5W24–1460.0W24–14UY
Thu 10/24Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern+1.0W47–1952.0W47–19OY
Sat 11/2Old Dominion at App State-2.5L20–2858.0L20–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Old Dominion vs James Madison+1.5L32–3551.0L32–35ON
Sat 11/23Old Dominion vs Marshall-3.0L35–4251.0L35–42ON
Sat 11/30Old Dominion at Arkansas State-5.5W40–3258.5W40–32OY
Coastal Carolina 2024 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Coastal Carolina at Jacksonville State+3.5W55–2754.5W55–27OY
Sat 9/7Coastal Carolina vs William & Mary-17.5W40–210.0W40–21OY
Sat 9/14Coastal Carolina at Temple-17.5W28–2051.5W28–20UN
Sat 9/21Coastal Carolina vs Virginia+3.5L24–4352.0L24–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion-4.0W45–3751.5W45–37OY
Thu 10/10Coastal Carolina at James Madison+7.0L7–3959.0L7–39UN
Sat 10/19Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana+6.0L24–3457.0L24–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Coastal Carolina at Troy-4.0L24–3852.0L24–38ON
Thu 11/7Coastal Carolina vs App State+1.5W38–2462.5W38–24UY
Sat 11/16Coastal Carolina at Marshall+7.5L19–3157.0L19–31UN
Sat 11/23Coastal Carolina vs Georgia Southern-2.0L6–2659.5L6–26UN
Sat 11/30Coastal Carolina at Georgia State+0.5W48–2752.5W48–27OY
Mon 12/23Coastal Carolina at UTSA+12.5L15–4456.5L15–44ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Old Dominion PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Old Dominion
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Old Dominion
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Old Dominion
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Old Dominion #47
+0.436
Coastal Carolina #73
+0.354
Old Dominion Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #61
+0.570
Coastal Carolina #68
+0.543
Old Dominion Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #68
0.160
Coastal Carolina #111
0.136
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Old Dominion Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #6
+8.870
Coastal Carolina #36
+7.880
Old Dominion Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Old Dominion #71
+0.858
Coastal Carolina #98
+0.793
Old Dominion Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Old Dominion #108
72.7
Coastal Carolina #65
70.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Coastal Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Old Dominion Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Old Dominion
0.3
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
Offense Rating
Old Dominion
14.4
Coastal Carolina
7.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Old Dominion
14.2
Coastal Carolina
22.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Old Dominion Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Old Dominion #32
0.75
Coastal Carolina #110
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #31
1.00
Coastal Carolina #96
1.00
Old Dominion +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Old Dominion #1
24.3
Coastal Carolina #1
66.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #71
54.9
Coastal Carolina #74
27.1
Coastal Carolina +41.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Old Dominion
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Coastal Carolina
58.0 — 21.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Coastal Carolina won by 8
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
15–23 (40%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Kevin Decker Yr 2 #1
DC Blake Seiler Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Travis Trickett Yr 2 #1
DC Craig Naivar Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself