Coastal Carolina at Troy Week 10 College Football Matchup Coastal Carolina at Troy Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 2 2024 · Week 10 · 🏟 Veterans Memorial Stadium Troy, AL · Turf · 30,000 cap
Coastal Carolina✈ 425 mi-1 hr TZ
24 38
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Coastal Carolina
26
Troy
28
P&R Line Troy -2
P&R Total O/U 54.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Coastal Carolina -4 · O/U 52.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Troy, while Game Control favors Coastal Carolina. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Troy wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Coastal Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Coastal Carolina -4
O/U 52.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Troy · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Coastal Carolina Coming off BYE
Coastal Carolina 2024 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Coastal Carolina at Jacksonville State+3.5W55–2754.5W55–27OY
Sat 9/7Coastal Carolina vs William & Mary-17.5W40–210.0W40–21OY
Sat 9/14Coastal Carolina at Temple-17.5W28–2051.5W28–20UN
Sat 9/21Coastal Carolina vs Virginia+3.5L24–4352.0L24–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion-4.0W45–3751.5W45–37OY
Thu 10/10Coastal Carolina at James Madison+7.0L7–3959.0L7–39UN
Sat 10/19Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana+6.0L24–3457.0L24–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Coastal Carolina at Troy-4.0L24–3852.0L24–38ON
Thu 11/7Coastal Carolina vs App State+1.5W38–2462.5W38–24UY
Sat 11/16Coastal Carolina at Marshall+7.5L19–3157.0L19–31UN
Sat 11/23Coastal Carolina vs Georgia Southern-2.0L6–2659.5L6–26UN
Sat 11/30Coastal Carolina at Georgia State+0.5W48–2752.5W48–27OY
Mon 12/23Coastal Carolina at UTSA+12.5L15–4456.5L15–44ON
Troy 2024 Schedule
Troy's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Troy vs Nevada-7.5L26–2844.5L26–28ON
Sat 9/7Troy at Memphis+18.5L17–3857.5L17–38UN
Sat 9/14Troy at Iowa+23.5L21–3839.5L21–38OY
Sat 9/21Troy vs Florida A&M-21.5W34–1248.5W34–12UY
Sat 9/28Troy vs UL Monroe-6.0L9–1346.0L9–13UN
Thu 10/3Troy vs Texas State+14.5L17–3856.0L17–38UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/15Troy at South Alabama+10.0L9–2553.0L9–25UN
Sat 10/26Troy at Arkansas State+8.5L31–3450.0L31–34OY
Sat 11/2Troy vs Coastal Carolina+4.0W38–2452.0W38–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Troy at Georgia Southern+7.0W28–2054.0W28–20UY
Sat 11/23Troy at Louisiana+7.5L30–5151.5L30–51ON
Sat 11/30Troy vs Southern Miss-17.5W52–2048.5W52–20OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Troy PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Troy
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Troy
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Troy
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Coastal Carolina #73
+0.365
Troy #50
+0.431
Troy Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #68
+0.513
Troy #25
+0.662
Troy Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #111
0.136
Troy #60
0.166
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Troy Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #36
+8.013
Troy #22
+8.552
Troy Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina #98
+0.838
Troy #49
+0.877
Troy Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina #65
70.7
Troy #118
73.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Coastal Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Troy Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
Troy
-12.2
Offense Rating
Coastal Carolina
7.8
Troy
9.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Coastal Carolina
22.1
Troy
21.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Troy Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Coastal Carolina #110
0.17
Troy #96
0.43
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #96
1.17
Troy #100
1.43
Troy +0.26
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Coastal Carolina #1
48.6
Troy #1
25.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #74
39.5
Troy #96
53.7
Coastal Carolina +23.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Troy
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Troy
69.7 — 13.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Troy won by 14
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Travis Trickett Yr 2 #1
DC Craig Naivar Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Troy
Gerad Parker #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Sean Reagan Yr 1 #1
DC Nathan Burton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself