SMU at Louisville Week 6 College Football Matchup SMU at Louisville Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 5 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 Papa John's Cardinal Stadium Louisville, KY · Turf · 55,000 cap
SMU✈ 721 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
34 27
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
SMU
29
SMU +6.5
Louisville
28
P&R Line SMU -1
P&R Total O/U 56.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Louisville -6.5 · O/U 55.0
Matchup Prediction
Louisville has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Louisville entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Louisville wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Louisville wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Louisville -6.5
O/U 55.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → SMU · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
SMU 2024 Schedule
SMU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24SMU at Nevada-28.0W29–2455.5W29–24UN
Sat 8/31SMU vs Houston Christian-30
Fri 9/6SMU vs BYU-12.5L15–1855.5L15–18UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21SMU vs TCU+1.0W66–4258.5W66–42OY
Sat 9/28SMU vs Florida State-6.0W42–1646.0W42–16OY
Sat 10/5SMU at Louisville+6.5W34–2755.0W34–27OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19SMU at Stanford-16.5W40–1052.5W40–10UY
Sat 10/26SMU at Duke-11.5W28–2749.5W28–27ON
Sat 11/2SMU vs Pittsburgh-7.0W48–2555.5W48–25OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16SMU vs Boston College-19.0W38–2854.5W38–28ON
Sat 11/23SMU at Virginia-11.5W33–754.5W33–7UY
Sat 11/30SMU vs California-11.5W38–654.5W38–6UY
Sat 12/7SMU vs Clemson-2.5L31–3456.5L31–34ON
Sat 12/21SMU at Penn State+9.0L10–3852.5L10–38UN
Louisville 2024 Schedule
Louisville's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Louisville vs Austin Peay-38.5W62–054.5W62–0OY
Sat 9/7Louisville vs Jacksonville State-27.5W49–1456.5W49–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Louisville vs Georgia Tech-9.5W31–1956.0W31–19UY
Sat 9/28Louisville at Notre Dame+6.5L24–3145.0L24–31ON
Sat 10/5Louisville vs SMU-6.5L27–3455.0L27–34ON
Sat 10/12Louisville at Virginia-7.0W24–2054.0W24–20UN
Sat 10/19Louisville vs Miami+4.5L45–5261.5L45–52ON
Fri 10/25Louisville at Boston College-7.0W31–2754.0W31–27ON
Sat 11/2Louisville at Clemson+11.0W33–2162.5W33–21UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Louisville at Stanford-21.0L35–3857.5L35–38ON
Sat 11/23Louisville vs Pittsburgh-7.0W37–957.0W37–9UY
Sat 11/30Louisville at Kentucky-3.5W41–1448.5W41–14OY
Tue 12/31Louisville vs Washington+1.0W35–3450.5W35–34OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
SMU PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ SMU
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ SMU
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ SMU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
SMU #38
+0.417
Louisville #15
+0.340
SMU Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
SMU #19
+0.647
Louisville #9
+0.517
SMU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
SMU #29
0.185
Louisville #62
0.164
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
SMU Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
SMU #25
+8.399
Louisville #31
+7.360
SMU Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
SMU #53
+0.843
Louisville #26
+0.831
SMU Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
SMU #26
68.9
Louisville #41
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
SMU Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
SMU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
SMU
15.2
Louisville
10.8
Offense Rating
SMU
25.0
Louisville
22.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
SMU
9.8
Louisville
11.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Louisville Edge
Avg sequences created per game
SMU #25
0.75
Louisville #5
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
SMU #22
0.25
Louisville #59
1.33
Louisville +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisville Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
SMU #1
58.8
Louisville #1
64.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
SMU #15
22.7
Louisville #26
23.1
Louisville +5.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Louisville. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
SMU
Rhett Lashlee #1
18–10 (64%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Casey Woods Yr 3 #1
DC Scott Symons Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #1
10–4 (71%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brian Brohm Yr 2 #1
DC Ron English Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself