Sat, Oct 19 2024
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Louisville, KY
·
Turf
·
55,000 cap
Miami✈ 905 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Miami
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Miami entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Miami wins
Strong
Game Control
58.3%
Miami wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Miami -4.5
O/U 61.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Miami
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Miami 2024 Schedule
Miami's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Miami at Florida | -2.5W41–17 | 54.5 | W41–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Miami vs Florida A&M | -46.5W56–9 | 55.5 | W56–9 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Miami vs Ball State | -36.5W62–0 | 55.5 | W62–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Miami at South Florida | -17.0W50–15 | 64.5 | W50–15 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/27 | Miami vs Virginia Tech | -17.5W38–34 | 55.5 | W38–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Miami at California | -10.0W39–38 | 54.0 | W39–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Miami at Louisville | -4.5W52–45 | 61.5 | W52–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Miami vs Florida State | -22.5W36–14 | 55.0 | W36–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Miami vs Duke | -21.0W53–31 | 55.5 | W53–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Miami at Georgia Tech | -9.5L23–28 | 64.5 | L23–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Miami vs Wake Forest | -23.5W42–14 | 67.0 | W42–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Miami at Syracuse | -12.5L38–42 | 65.5 | L38–42 | O | N |
| Sat 12/28 | Miami vs Iowa State | -5.0L41–42 | 62.0 | L41–42 | O | N |
Louisville 2024 Schedule
Louisville's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Louisville vs Austin Peay | -38.5W62–0 | 54.5 | W62–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Louisville vs Jacksonville State | -27.5W49–14 | 56.5 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Louisville vs Georgia Tech | -9.5W31–19 | 56.0 | W31–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Louisville at Notre Dame | +6.5L24–31 | 45.0 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Louisville vs SMU | -6.5L27–34 | 55.0 | L27–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Louisville at Virginia | -7.0W24–20 | 54.0 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Louisville vs Miami | +4.5L45–52 | 61.5 | L45–52 | O | N |
| Fri 10/25 | Louisville at Boston College | -7.0W31–27 | 54.0 | W31–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Louisville at Clemson | +11.0W33–21 | 62.5 | W33–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Louisville at Stanford | -21.0L35–38 | 57.5 | L35–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Louisville vs Pittsburgh | -7.0W37–9 | 57.0 | W37–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Louisville at Kentucky | -3.5W41–14 | 48.5 | W41–14 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Louisville vs Washington | +1.0W35–34 | 50.5 | W35–34 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Miami
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Miami Edge
Miami +2.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Miami Edge
Miami +7.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Miami
11.2 — 68.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Miami won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Miami. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
12–13 (48%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Shannon Dawson
Yr 2
#1
DC
Lance Guidry
Yr 2
#1
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #1
10–4 (71%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Brian Brohm
Yr 2
#1
DC
Ron English
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓