Illinois at Northwestern Week 14 College Football Matchup Illinois at Northwestern Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 30 2024 · Week 14 · Neutral Site · 🏟 Wrigley Field Chicago, IL · Turf
Illinois✈ 523 miSame TZ Northwestern✈ 557 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
38 28
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Illinois
28
Northwestern
11
P&R Line Illinois -17.5
P&R Total O/U 39
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Illinois -8.5 · O/U 42.5
Matchup Prediction
Illinois has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Illinois entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Illinois wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Illinois wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Illinois -8.5
O/U 42.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Illinois · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Illinois 2nd straight Road Game
Illinois 2024 Schedule
Illinois's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Illinois vs Eastern Illinois-28.5W45–050.5W45–0UY
Sat 9/7Illinois vs Kansas+4.5W23–1758.5W23–17UY
Sat 9/14Illinois vs Central Michigan-21.5W30–949.5W30–9UN
Fri 9/20Illinois at Nebraska+9.5W31–2441.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/28Illinois at Penn State+19.5L7–2148.0L7–21UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Illinois vs Purdue-22.5W50–4947.5W50–49ON
Sat 10/19Illinois vs Michigan+6.0W21–744.0W21–7UY
Sat 10/26Illinois at Oregon+22.5L9–3854.0L9–38UN
Sat 11/2Illinois vs Minnesota+2.5L17–2547.0L17–25UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Illinois vs Michigan State-2.0W38–1647.5W38–16OY
Sat 11/23Illinois at Rutgers+2.0W38–3148.0W38–31OY
Sat 11/30Illinois vs Northwestern-8.5W38–2842.5W38–28OY
Tue 12/31Illinois vs South Carolina+9.5W21–1750.0W21–17UY
Northwestern 2024 Schedule
Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Northwestern vs Miami (OH)-4.0W13–643.0W13–6UY
Fri 9/6Northwestern vs Duke-2.5L20–2637.5L20–26ON
Sat 9/14Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois-26.5W31–738.5W31–7UN
Sat 9/21Northwestern at Washington+11.5L5–2442.5L5–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Northwestern vs Indiana+12.5L24–4140.5L24–41ON
Fri 10/11Northwestern at Maryland+11.0W37–1045.0W37–10OY
Sat 10/19Northwestern vs Wisconsin+9.5L3–2342.5L3–23UN
Sat 10/26Northwestern at Iowa+16.5L14–4038.5L14–40ON
Sat 11/2Northwestern at Purdue+3.0W26–2044.5W26–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Northwestern vs Ohio State+28.0L7–3143.5L7–31UY
Sat 11/23Northwestern at Michigan+10.5L6–5035.5L6–50ON
Sat 11/30Northwestern vs Illinois+8.5L28–3842.5L28–38ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Illinois PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Illinois #31
+0.400
Northwestern #129
+0.203
Illinois Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Illinois #16
+0.631
Northwestern #132
+0.203
Illinois Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Illinois #117
0.133
Northwestern #77
0.154
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Northwestern Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Illinois #39
+7.970
Northwestern #127
+6.498
Illinois Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Illinois #45
+0.896
Northwestern #123
+0.834
Illinois Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Illinois #46
69.8
Northwestern #92
72.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Illinois Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Illinois Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Illinois
8.0
Northwestern
-0.6
Offense Rating
Illinois
18.9
Northwestern
16.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Illinois
10.9
Northwestern
16.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Illinois Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Illinois #108
0.70
Northwestern #112
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Illinois #23
0.60
Northwestern #118
1.60
Illinois +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Illinois Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Illinois #1
46.3
Northwestern #1
33.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Illinois #35
32.7
Northwestern #107
46.7
Illinois +13.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Illinois
1 — 3 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Illinois
11.2 — 69.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Illinois won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Illinois with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Illinois
Bret Bielema #1
18–19 (49%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Barry Lunney Jr. Yr 3 #1
DC Aaron Henry Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Northwestern
David Braun #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Zach Lujan Yr 1 #1
DC Tim McGarigle Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself