South Carolina at Illinois Week 1 College Football Matchup South Carolina at Illinois Matchup - Week 1
Tue, Dec 31 2024 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Camping World Stadium Orlando, FL · Turf · 65,000 cap
South Carolina✈ 376 miSame TZ Illinois✈ 888 mi+1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
17 21
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
South Carolina
29
Illinois
21
P&R Line South Carolina -8.5
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas South Carolina -9.5 · O/U 50.0
Matchup Prediction
South Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor South Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
South Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
South Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
South Carolina -9.5
O/U 50.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → South Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 South Carolina 2nd straight Road Game
South Carolina 2024 Schedule
South Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31South Carolina vs Old Dominion-20.5W23–1949.5W23–19UN
Sat 9/7South Carolina at Kentucky+9.5W31–641.5W31–6UY
Sat 9/14South Carolina vs LSU+7.0L33–3650.0L33–36OY
Sat 9/21South Carolina vs Akron-25.0W50–742.0W50–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5South Carolina vs Ole Miss+10.0L3–2753.0L3–27UN
Sat 10/12South Carolina at Alabama+21.0L25–2750.0L25–27OY
Sat 10/19South Carolina at Oklahoma-1.0W35–940.5W35–9OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2South Carolina vs Texas A&M+3.0W44–2043.5W44–20OY
Sat 11/9South Carolina at Vanderbilt-6.0W28–744.5W28–7UY
Sat 11/16South Carolina vs Missouri-10.5W34–3042.5W34–30ON
Sat 11/23South Carolina vs Wofford-42.5W56–1249.5W56–12OY
Sat 11/30South Carolina at Clemson+2.5W17–1448.5W17–14UY
Tue 12/31South Carolina vs Illinois-9.5L17–2150.0L17–21UN
Illinois 2024 Schedule
Illinois's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Illinois vs Eastern Illinois-28.5W45–050.5W45–0UY
Sat 9/7Illinois vs Kansas+4.5W23–1758.5W23–17UY
Sat 9/14Illinois vs Central Michigan-21.5W30–949.5W30–9UN
Fri 9/20Illinois at Nebraska+9.5W31–2441.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/28Illinois at Penn State+19.5L7–2148.0L7–21UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Illinois vs Purdue-22.5W50–4947.5W50–49ON
Sat 10/19Illinois vs Michigan+6.0W21–744.0W21–7UY
Sat 10/26Illinois at Oregon+22.5L9–3854.0L9–38UN
Sat 11/2Illinois vs Minnesota+2.5L17–2547.0L17–25UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Illinois vs Michigan State-2.0W38–1647.5W38–16OY
Sat 11/23Illinois at Rutgers+2.0W38–3148.0W38–31OY
Sat 11/30Illinois vs Northwestern-8.5W38–2842.5W38–28OY
Tue 12/31Illinois vs South Carolina+9.5W21–1750.0W21–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
South Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ South Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
South Carolina #48
+0.401
Illinois #31
+0.324
South Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
South Carolina #23
+0.553
Illinois #16
+0.538
South Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
South Carolina #21
0.189
Illinois #117
0.133
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
South Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
South Carolina #62
+7.446
Illinois #39
+7.415
South Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
South Carolina #58
+0.899
Illinois #45
+0.867
South Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
South Carolina #41
69.7
Illinois #46
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
South Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Illinois Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
South Carolina
5.3
Illinois
8.0
Offense Rating
South Carolina
18.3
Illinois
18.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
South Carolina
13.0
Illinois
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? South Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
South Carolina #59
1.00
Illinois #108
0.91
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
South Carolina #38
0.91
Illinois #23
0.64
South Carolina +0.09
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? South Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
South Carolina #1
55.5
Illinois #1
48.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
South Carolina #23
27.3
Illinois #35
30.9
South Carolina +7.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on South Carolina. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
20–18 (53%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Dowell Loggains Yr 2 #1
DC Clayton White Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Illinois
Bret Bielema #1
18–19 (49%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Barry Lunney Jr. Yr 3 #1
DC Aaron Henry Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself