Purdue at Illinois Week 7 College Football Matchup Purdue at Illinois Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 12 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 Memorial Stadium Champaign, IL · Turf · 60,670 cap
Away
49 50
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Purdue
12
ILL -22.5
Illinois
40
P&R Line Illinois -28
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Illinois -22.5 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Illinois has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Illinois entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Illinois wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Illinois wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Illinois -22.5
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Illinois · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Illinois Coming off BYE 🚌 Purdue 2nd straight Road Game
Purdue 2024 Schedule
Purdue's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Purdue vs Indiana State-35.5W49–052.5W49–0UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Purdue vs Notre Dame+11.5L7–6645.5L7–66ON
Sat 9/21Purdue at Oregon State+1.5L21–3851.0L21–38ON
Sat 9/28Purdue vs Nebraska+10.0L10–2847.5L10–28UN
Sat 10/5Purdue at Wisconsin+12.0L6–5244.5L6–52ON
Sat 10/12Purdue at Illinois+22.5L49–5047.5L49–50OY
Fri 10/18Purdue vs Oregon+30.0L0–3561.0L0–35UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Purdue vs Northwestern-3.0L20–2644.5L20–26ON
Sat 11/9Purdue at Ohio State+37.5L0–4555.5L0–45UN
Sat 11/16Purdue vs Penn State+30.0L10–4951.5L10–49ON
Fri 11/22Purdue at Michigan State+14.0L17–2449.0L17–24UY
Sat 11/30Purdue at Indiana+28.5L0–6656.5L0–66ON
Illinois 2024 Schedule
Illinois's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Illinois vs Eastern Illinois-28.5W45–050.5W45–0UY
Sat 9/7Illinois vs Kansas+4.5W23–1758.5W23–17UY
Sat 9/14Illinois vs Central Michigan-21.5W30–949.5W30–9UN
Fri 9/20Illinois at Nebraska+9.5W31–2441.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/28Illinois at Penn State+19.5L7–2148.0L7–21UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Illinois vs Purdue-22.5W50–4947.5W50–49ON
Sat 10/19Illinois vs Michigan+6.0W21–744.0W21–7UY
Sat 10/26Illinois at Oregon+22.5L9–3854.0L9–38UN
Sat 11/2Illinois vs Minnesota+2.5L17–2547.0L17–25UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Illinois vs Michigan State-2.0W38–1647.5W38–16OY
Sat 11/23Illinois at Rutgers+2.0W38–3148.0W38–31OY
Sat 11/30Illinois vs Northwestern-8.5W38–2842.5W38–28OY
Tue 12/31Illinois vs South Carolina+9.5W21–1750.0W21–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Illinois PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Illinois
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Illinois
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Purdue #112
+0.284
Illinois #31
+0.635
Illinois Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Purdue #103
+0.350
Illinois #16
+0.863
Illinois Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Purdue #125
0.125
Illinois #117
0.133
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Illinois Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Purdue #115
+6.819
Illinois #39
+9.047
Illinois Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Purdue #96
+0.870
Illinois #45
+0.939
Illinois Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Purdue #121
73.2
Illinois #46
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Illinois Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Illinois Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Purdue
-3.9
Illinois
8.0
Offense Rating
Purdue
13.6
Illinois
18.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Purdue
17.5
Illinois
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Illinois Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Purdue #128
0.25
Illinois #108
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Purdue #131
2.50
Illinois #23
0.25
Illinois +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Illinois Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Purdue #1
24.8
Illinois #1
47.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Purdue #138
62.0
Illinois #35
26.5
Illinois +23.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Illinois
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Illinois
72.0 — 12.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Illinois won by 1
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Illinois with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Purdue
Ryan Walters #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Graham Harrell Yr 2 #1
DC Kevin Kane Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Illinois
Bret Bielema #1
18–19 (49%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Barry Lunney Jr. Yr 3 #1
DC Aaron Henry Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself